JOHANNESBURG - The chamber's Business Confidence Index measured 94.9 in June 2012. It gauges the business community's mood in response to economic conditions.

The BCI uses 13 sub-indexes which include manufacturing, exports, imports, vehicle sales, construction, share prices, inflation, and the rand exchange rate.

A substantial year-on-year gap in the BCI of 8.4 points developed between May 2011 and May 2012. It narrowed to 7.5 points between June 2011 and June 2012.

However, the BCI in June 2012 was 9.3 points below the peak of 104.2 in March 2011, during the present upward phase of the business cycle that started in September 2009.

In the first half of 2011, the BCI averaged 102.6, although this average weakened to 98.3 in the second half of 2011, and to 95.7 in the first half of 2012.

The dip in the BCI in May 2012 was followed by notable improvements in the sub-indices in June 2012.

While only two of the 13 sub-indices of the BCI were positive on a month-on-month basis in May, eight sub-indices turned positive, with one remaining unchanged in June 2012.

Most of the sub-indices in both the financial and real economic divisions of the BCI were positive in June.

Sacci said the financial environment was less supportive of a positive business mood than a year ago. There were signs the real economic environment may have consolidated.

"Although the improvement in business confidence is important, the recovery of the BCI in June 2012 may still be tested, given the uncertain global economic situation as well as [the] socio-political and economic circumstances in South Africa," Sacci said.