With the 2024 general elections just less than a week away, once things is certain; Mpumalanga’s political landscape is subject to change, and while those changes may not be immediate, they are just on the horizon.
Lowvelder spoke to political analyst and University of Mpumalanga lecturer of political science Khanya Vilakazi on the upcoming elections and the effects it might have on the province’s political landscape going forward.
“When it comes to this election cycle, there might be some significant changes,” said Vilakazi. “In Mpumalanga, I think the most prominent parties are the ANC on top, followed by the DA, the FF Plus and the IFP, and to some extent currently, we’ve got the EFF. But in this upcoming election cycle, we can see the FF Plus dropping for the MK Party coming in at number two or three, probably, in the province.”
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He said this largely comes down to the disgruntled core supporters of the MK Party, predominantly people emanating from the ANC who want to see some sort of political change.
“Since 2019, we have seen a more polarised political landscape with the DA losing a lot of their conservative members to the FF Plus, and that is where I see the FF Plus gaining more positions than they did during the 2019 electoral cycle.”
He said, however, that this will not be enough to upset any other political party as the official opposition in the province.
“I think the ANC in Mpumalanga will get a 50%. If not, then it will be marginally smaller that 50%, however, the status quo will still remain. I think the biggest move will be in the opposition ranks.”
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He said it is likely the MK Party will gobble up a lot of the disgruntled ANC members and ex-members who harbour admiration towards the former president, Jacob Zuma.
“The surest assertion is that these opposition parties that currently exist are, to some extent, going to lose a percentage of their supporters. The one party within these opposition parties that will gain will be the FF Plus, because of the saturation of the type of voter who used to vote for the DA migrating to the FF Plus.”
He said between 2019 and now, the political system has been polarising in terms of people taking harsh stances on political positions.
“If we look at the election of FF Plus, in the local government elections of 2021, we saw the FF Plus gaining more votes from the DA.”
He said he feels this is down to the polarisation that the EFF has had in the political system.
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When asked what he thinks the outcome of the general elections will have on the political structure in place in the province, Vilakazi said while he doesn’t think there will be major change, he does feel the ANC may receive a harsh reality check.
“If they read the election results well, then it will mean they will need to apply a very strong municipal service implementation after the elections to maintain what they have in the municipal offices. If they do not, they run the risk of alienating a lot of people, and these voters will then find alternative parties after the national and provincial elections towards the municipal elections.
“I think it will be a good thing that the ANC may be shocked into action when they see they no longer have the super majority and they will need to pull their socks up in terms of service delivery. If the ANC is not aware of this, then they will have municipalities once controlled being hung. Especially in Piet Retief toward the Lowveld areas, because former ANC voters may join the MK Party or EFF.”
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When asked about the importance of voting, Vilakazi said it is about taking the opportunity to make yourself heard.
“The biggest challenge the IEC currently faces is the apathy of the youth. When the youth itself believe they are not being included in the system, they are not going to vote. This then sees older people making decisions for our future. The most important part of any election cycle is to encourage young people to take charge of their future by deciding who they want to vote for. It allows them to make their mark.”
*The views expressed in this report are those of the relevant interviewee and are not held by this publication.
