Covid-19: Professor warns there is a high risk of a second surge

Gauteng Premier David Makhura provided an update on the work that has been done by the Gauteng Provincial Command Council on 9 October.

Professor Bruce Mellado, from Wits University’s iThemba Labs, who is also a member of the Gauteng Command Council, outlined how they have modelled the pandemic in the province and the risk of a second surge. Mellado explained that while the Covid-19 numbers in the province have decreased significantly, they haven’t reduced enough to prevent a second surge.

He said that their predictions are continuously being adjusted based on the data. He explained that the risk of a second surge this year is very high if the population’s compliance with safety measures reduces. He used Spain as an example of an initial peak which was initially reduced by harsh lockdown measures. However, over the past couple of months, there has been a significant surge in cases.

He said that this is similar to other European countries where the second surge is higher than the first. “Under circumstances, we can stop the pandemic in its tracks but that is the result of action by the government and the population altogether, but that doesn’t mean the pandemic is over,” said Mellado.

He said that they have created a risk index that highlights the probability of a second surge. This data can be viewed here.

Mellado highlighted that it is important to note that South Africa has not reached the peak of the pandemic, rather just the first surge. He said that the risk of further surges is very high and it is important for citizens to not let their guard down.

Acting head of the Department of Health Lesiba Malotana said that the infections in Level 1 remain relatively stable. There was a slight spike which they are monitoring closely. He highlighted that Johannesburg has always had the highest number of cases within the province, particularly in Region D. He added that the CBD in Tshwane has also been an area of concern.

Malotana said that their focus is still on ensuring there is capacity within the health system, should there be a second surge.

Tasneem Motara, the MEC for Infrastructure Development, said they analysed the capacity that they had to treat patients and the gap that was expected during a surge. She said that they had to create more critical care beds and construct new facilities. She added that they also identified four hospitals to create 1 400 critical care beds. Motara said that Covid-19 pandemic allowed them to bring forward upgrades which they had planned for the next five years.

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