An expert says ANC Gauteng chair and premier David Makhura will leave big shoes that will be difficult for his deputy Panyaza Lesufi or his fellow candidate Lebogang Maile to fill… but this should not prevent the ANC from losing the province at the next election. Political analyst Prof Dirk Kotze said trends from the November local government election show the ANC was on the brink of losing Gauteng to a coalition of the opposition parties. Whoever emerges victorious at next week’s provincial conference, will not be able to turn the tide in ANC’s favour. This week, Lesufi promised to...
An expert says ANC Gauteng chair and premier David Makhura will leave big shoes that will be difficult for his deputy Panyaza Lesufi or his fellow candidate Lebogang Maile to fill… but this should not prevent the ANC from losing the province at the next election.
Political analyst Prof Dirk Kotze said trends from the November local government election show the ANC was on the brink of losing Gauteng to a coalition of the opposition parties.
Whoever emerges victorious at next week’s provincial conference, will not be able to turn the tide in ANC’s favour.
This week, Lesufi promised to retain Gauteng under the ANC control, should he be elected. For the last three elections, including the November polls, the Democratic Alliance (DA) had been talking about an imminent wresting of the province from the ANC, but the results always came with the ANC still on top.
But the governing party’s losses of the cities of Joburg, Tshwane and Ekurhuleni in November dimmed its hope for future control of the Gauteng Legislature.
Kotze, a political scientists from University of SA, said Lesufi’s successes in the administration of education would come handy in battle to replace Makhura, who indicated he would not stand for re-election.
He said Lesufi had been commended for his initiatives such as the introduction of the online registration and placement of pupils and his fight for transformation at some schools, for which he was criticised by some.
“Some people strongly support him for that, some people are really very much against him. But in terms of the big picture especially in the ANC, those are a small minority,” Kotze said.
On the other hand, Maile had a solid reputation from the ANC Youth League but made serious blunders as MEC for cooperative governance and traditional affairs such as his chaotic intervention in Tshwane, he said.
“I think that undermined his reputation quite a lot, so there are many people who won’t be able to trust him for his judgement because he was so severely reprimanded by the courts,” Kotze said.
The ANC’s majority was already so small in Gauteng that in the 2019 national election it received 53%, while it lost all the three metros at the November local polls.
Maile previously challenged Makhura for the position but lost. But he did not perform dismally as some of his camp’s members were elected into the top six during the 2018 provincial conference.
The results for Lesufi and Maile in 2018 were 623 against 601 – a difference of a mere 22 votes – which proved the two were at the same level.
However, some of Maile’s 2018 camp members, such as Nomhanto Nkomo-Ralehoko and Jacob Khawe, have since moved to Lesufi’s side. He was reportedly backed by the Mzwandile Masina faction in Ekurhuleni while Doctor Xhakaza’s group was with Lesufi.
ANC Gauteng leadership contests are fought merely on the basis of individual slates and “sloganeering” not on existing CR and the radical economic transformation factions. But on conclusion the provincial conference would then choose which of the two faction to support.
