World Cup: South Africa should beat New Zealand … here’s why

AS all cricket fans know, South Africa’s hopes of World Cup semi-final qualification hang by the thinnest of threads.

However, as an eternal optimist and as someone who enjoys random statistics, I am almost 100 percent certain the Proteas will beat the Black Caps today (Wednesday 19).

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My thinking is based on completely unscientific, probably unreliable, evidence.

Believe it or not, South Africa has lost its last FOUR World Cup games against New Zealand.

What are the odds on us losing five in a row? Some disheartened fans may say ‘easy’.

But come on, from a purely statistical point of view it’s an anomaly as these two teams have been fairly evenly match in ODI cricket over the past three decades.

Funnily enough, we have played them in every World Cup. I don’t think that is true of any other nation.

Here’s a quick look at how it panned out:

1992: Lost – All I remember is our bowlers getting smashed by Mark ‘Paddy’ Greatbatch who was the first to ‘go big’ in the early overs.

1996: Won – Allan Donald grabbed three wickets and Hansie Cronje made 78.

1999: Won – Easy win, thanks to Herschelle Gibbs’s 91, but it was better remembered for Lance Klusener going up the order at 3 and having his timber rearranged by one of Glen Larsen’s dobblers, for 4.

2003: Lost – Big loss at home, where Stephen Fleming, normally sedate, found his inner Greatbatch and smashed us to all parts.

2007: Lost – AB de Villiers made a duck and Hersch top-scored with 60 odd but it ended in a comfortable loss.

2011: Lost in quarter finals – Jacob Oram’s career-best catch to dismiss Jacques Kallis sparked a batting collapse from which we seemingly have still not recovered.

2015: Lost in semi-finals – This one is best left forgotten, but it’s hard to get the image of the ball disappearing into the crowd out of the mind.

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