WATCH: ANC won’t split, says analyst

“The ANC will never split, because both opposing sides need the party as a vehicle for their survival,” says political analyst Melanie Verwoerd.

Verwoerd was reacting to claims that the ANC, ridden by factionalism and discord, is on the brink of separating.

It is believed that the ANC is broadly divided into supporters of President Cyril Ramaphosa, and supporters of radical economic transformation (RET), represented by the secretary-general of the ANC, Ace Magashule.

Verwoerd explains that Magashule is currently the main character in the step-aside drama playing out in the ANC, after he was charged with corruption linked to a R230-million asbestos eradication tender, awarded during his time as Free State premier. He is now out on bail of R200 000.

Magashule has until the second week in May to step aside, after the NEC asked him earlier this month to step down from his position within 30 days. However, a defiant Magashule says he is going nowhere.

Verwoerd says the drama surrounding former president Jacob Zuma is also escalating, and the possibility that he will have to serve time in prison due to his refusal to appear before the Zondo Commission, in defiance of an order by the Constitutional Court, is becoming greater by the day. Zuma’s supporters have made it clear that this will not happen without consequences.

Two supporters of Ramaphosa, Sibongile Besani, head of the ANC presidency in Luthuli House, and Dr Zamani Saul, premier of the Northern Cape, warned last week that the RET faction within the ANC is probably planning a new party.

WATCH: In an interview with journalist Izak du Plessis, Verwoerd says that both factions in the ANC know very well that they cannot exist on their own.