Hospital pressure to remain, post-coronavirus peak – expert
“We do not expect the number of deaths to drop anytime soon.”
Modellers at the University of the Witwatersrand said it was still too early to tell whether Covid-19 cases in the province had peaked.
“We still need to monitor the trends in cases for another week to see if we have already peaked,” said vaccinologist Professor Shabir Madhi.
“We still need to calculate the seven-day rolling average. It is difficult to make a decision based on a single day of stats data. By the end of this week or early next week, we will have an indication on whether we have peaked.”
The province had seen a levelled trajectory in recorded daily infections from Saturday’s 16 091, marked as the highest recorded daily infection rate.
Between 27 June and 4 July, the province recorded 81 127 infections. The week was expected to be a peak period before information of the new Delta variant was revealed. It was also a high jump in cases from 56 122 infections from the previous week of 16-23 June.
“What we can see is the positivity rate (people testing positive) has been extremely high up to 40 % in Gauteng; usually, we want that to be under 10%, but it has not shown any signs of decrease, which is a concern.”
Madhi said he expected the cases to be lower this week than last week, with the pressure on hospitals remaining for another two to three weeks.
“We also do not expect the number of deaths to drop anytime soon.”
Madhi urged the public to adhere to regulations, especially indoor gatherings. He said 80% of infections were a result of direct contact from social gatherings.
“The Delta variant is one of the reasons why we have had so many cases. On a positive note, the current mortality rate in Gauteng is still the same as the second wave. Things could have been much worse.”
Gauteng command council member Professor Bruce Mellado said according to their modelling, the province was expected to peak this week.
“We are concerned. On Saturday we had a major peak followed by similar cases as before then, which indicated the situation quelled but we are far from being out of the woods.”
He said that it was possible the peak was on Saturday, but more time was needed to monitor.
“Even if we have a peak this week as the model shows, we are far from being out of the woods. The hospitals will be under pressure for the next few weeks. The healthcare system will be under tremendous pressure.”
Having recorded high numbers of infections, Mellado said it would take about a month for hospitals to be relieved of the pressure.
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“The fact that this week we expect that we will have an upward trajectory replaced by a downward after that, does not mean that we can relax.”
Mellado concurred that the Delta variant contributed to the large infections.
“The impact of this on the healthcare system is mind-boggling. The only way to relieve the pressure is to do our part and adhere to regulations.”
He said mobility continued to be a contributing factor in the transmissions.
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