Impending tropical cyclone not expected to affect SA

While tropical cyclone Batsirai is making waves off the coast of Madagascar, it is not expected to bring much heavy weather to South Africa.

At 5am this (Tuesday) morning, Batsirai was 669km northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius, having moved southwestward at 13km/h (7 knots) over the previous six hours.

Over the preceding 12 hours, the cyclone slowed, reaching equatorward point, and then turned southwestward as the steering mechanism switched from a weak steering pattern dominated by the near-equatorial ridge to the north, to one dominated by the subtropical ridge to the southwest.

All eyes are on tropical cyclone Batsirai as it has been reported by various weather entities as a ‘dangerous system with possibilities of damaging winds, heavy rainfall, storm surges, rough seas, mudslides, and flash flooding’ in its wake.

According to the Severe Weather and Information Centre SA (SWAICSA), whose information is gleaned from the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC), landfall along the central coast of Madagascar is expected within the next five days.

‘In the near-term, persistent moderate to strong easterly shear will lead to a steady intensity, or slight weakening over the next 24 hours.

‘After 36 hours, the shear is forecast to begin to slacken, allowing Batsirai to re-establish the convective core, and embark upon a period of steady intensification,’ said SWAICSA on its Facebook page on Tuesday.

In four days, Batsirai’s intensification is expected to peak at 205km/h (110 knots).

‘Once the system makes landfall, it will weaken rapidly as it interacts with the rough terrain of central Madagascar,’ said SWAICSA.

‘Track guidance is in good agreement over the next three days, with increased uncertainty thereafter.’

While threats to South Africa have not been confirmed, Batsirai could bring heavy rain to northeastern parts of the country. Tropical cyclones are notoriously erratic, so its path could change at any point.