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Above-average rainfall expected for remainder of summer

Global models struggling to predict potential effect of La Niña event due to significant uncertainty whether and when it will take place - SA Weather Service

WHILE the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (Enso) remains in a neutral state and is predicted to weaken further, there is still no confirmation of whether or not a La Niña event will occur.

This means the Zululand region, and KwaZulu-Natal as a summer rainfall province, can continue to expect above-average rainfall until later in the season.

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This is according to the South African Weather Service (SAWS) seasonal climate watch covering January to May 2025.

The weather service said current predictions show the development of a weak La Niña state only during mid-summer and may affect South Africa’s summer rainfall only in the latter part of the season.
“There is also still significant uncertainty in the predictions at this stage on whether a La Niña event will occur,” said SAWS.

Parts of the north-eastern central and coastal areas of the country can expect above-normal rainfall during late summer, shifting to only an expectation of above-normal rainfall for parts of the country’s eastern regions in autumn.

“The global models are struggling to predict the potential effect of the La Niña event due to the significant uncertainty whether and when the event will take place,” said SAWS.

“Minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be mostly above-normal countrywide for the forecast period, however, the southern coastal areas indicate that below-normal maximum temperatures are more likely throughout the summer period.”

 

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