Struwwelpeter: Eskom se situasie is nie veel beter as die van die polisie nie

STRUWWELPETER het ‘n spesmaas dat die uitgooi van die saak teen Dewani nie sodanig gaan oor sy skuld of onskuld nie.

Dit gaan meer oor die absolute onbeholpe gemors wat die polisie van die Dewani-ondersoek gemaak het. Dit het natuurlik gelei tot probleme vir die staatsaanklaer. Wat anders kon die regter doen? Ai tog!

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Maar van ‘n gemors gepraat, Eskom se situasie is nie veel beter as die van die polisie nie. Hieronder volg ‘n uittreksel uit Moneyweb wat dinge nogal mooi opsom:

The speed at which South Africa’s electricity grid came close to breaking point on Friday illustrates how razor-thin Eskom’s reserve margin is. Technically speaking, at times it’s running a negative reserve margin. This is an emergency.

Last Monday, Eskom spokesperson Andrew Etzinger was “cautiously optimistic” that there would be no load shedding during the week “or in the near future”. That prognosis changed by Thursday when we were “urged” to “prepare” for load shedding later on in the week or over the weekend.

By Thursday afternoon, we were into Stage 2 load shedding (2 000MW) for the evening peak. We started Stage 2 at 11am on Friday, and within an hour, Eskom was knee-deep in a crisis. For the next ten hours, Eskom was at Stage 3 (4 000MW).

The emergency continued into Saturday, with Stage 3 load shedding running from 6am on to 10pm (including, significantly, industrial customers). Etzinger then started referencing the “recent” blackouts in “California, parts of Europe, India”, and warned (pre-empted?) that if the grid were to collapse in South Africa, it would take weeks to restart.

Eskom has also seemed to very quietly rewritten the rules. Stage 3 load shedding used to allow for 3 000MW of “load to be shed”. Now, that number is suddenly 4 000MW.

On Thursday, Eskom put its current planned maintenance at 5 295MW, with unplanned outages of 8 377MW. That unplanned figure is frightening, especially when you compare it with Medupi’s total generating capacity of 4 800MW (at current timelines, estimated to be completely online by the end of 2018).

By its own published numbers, Eskom has 42 072MW of generating capacity. The truth is that number hasn’t grown significantly since 2008/2009 (when its capacity was 40 503 MW). It’s increased by 4% (net) … but how, if it added 6 137MW of capacity since 2005?

Electricity demand in SA is at a 7-year low. But the decline in generation plant performance is faster than the decline in electricity demand.

Chief executives are largely oblivious to day-to-day operations. Their job is to look six, 12, 18, 24 months ahead. Brian Dames would’ve surely had a view a year ago of what was likely to happen in two or three or four quarters’ time. He might not have known for sure, but perhaps he had the slightest of inklings.

He resigned on December 5, 2013. That should tell you all you need to know.

Since the Majuba silo disaster (or in Eskom parlance, “crack”), we’ve had more load shedding than we’ve had since 2008. In winter, Eskom was forced to shed load on March 6 and June 11, 12 and 17. That’s before this latest nightmare which, based on the past week, is only getting worse.

And what about our indefatigable Minister of Energy, Tina Joemat Pettersson? Last we heard, she’d be running “nuclear vendor parade workshops” in the Drakensberg (and no, she wasn’t in China with President Jacob Zuma at the end of last week). She literally hasn’t been seen for weeks.

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En, terloops, Struwwelpeter wonder of die krag na Zuma se palais de danse ook afgesny word?

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Malema loop in ‘n meubelwinkel op soek na ‘n wasmasjien. Maar al die wasmasjiene is wit en dit geval hom nie.

“Why are all these machines white?” vra hy die verkoopsman. “This looks like racism to me!”

“Not at all!” antwoord die man. “Allow me to open the doors, and you will see that all the agitators are black!” (Thanks Scorpio)

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Nou ja, dis alweer Kersfeestyd, en hierdie is dus die laaste rubriek vir die jaar.

Aan sy Christen-lesers sê Struwwelpeter, Geseënde Kersfees.

Aan sy Joodse vriende: Enjoy your Hannukah.

En aan al die ander lesers, geniet die vakansieseisoen.