House price expectations

RE/MAX discuss the Lightstone and housing report, and what it means for the property market.

Property prices continue to grow slowly in the face of challenging economic conditions and high interest rates. The current annual property inflation rate is around 2.41%*, with some outlying provinces like the Western Cape at around 4.8%*.

Adrian Goslett, Regional Director and CEO of RE/MAX of Southern Africa expects there to be slow growth in face of the external factors; however, the RE/MAX network continues to surpass his expectations. “Our network doesn’t seem to allow external factors to stand between them and closing a sale. At the end of Q1 2024, our reported sales (live deals) are up 22% on Q1 2023,” he notes.

The Q4 2023 RE/MAX National Housing Report revealed that the nationwide average price of sectional titles, when reviewed against the figures from previous RE/MAX National Housing Reports, is 9% higher YoY. When compared to the figures from previous RE/MAX National Housing Reports, the nationwide average price of freehold homes is also up by 4% YoY. “Although we don’t yet have the data to review, I am curious to see what the Q1 2024 RE/MAX Housing Report results will reveal. I expect growth to be slow, but the results might still surprise us,” says Goslett.

Also, in reviewing Q4 2023 data, the March edition of the BetterBond Property Brief states, “According to the RPP Index, the average price of residential properties increased by 2.6% YOY. The BetterBond home price increase for this fourth-quarter period was 1.5%. Considering the enhanced upward momentum in the average BetterBond home price, it is realistic to expect a similar pattern for the RPP Index for Q1 of 2024.”

Other industry experts predict that house price growth will continue to be slow but steady in the year ahead. Paul-Roux De Kock, Chief Analytics Officer at Lightstone, shared three scenarios in the February newsletter, suggesting that HPI in South Africa would likely come in between 1.84% (low) to 2.86% (mid) or 3.57% (high).

While these predictions can help us gauge overall property market performance, Goslett reminds homeowners and investors that each suburb will have its own trends that may or may not align with the national averages. “The best way to stay informed about how your property is appreciating in value is to keep in touch with a local real estate agent,” he concludes.

*According to the Jan 2024 Lightstone House Price Index

Writer: Kayla Ferguson

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