The health ministry anticipates the fifth high resurgence (fifth wave) of coronavirus infections to likely break out closer to the cold winter season or earlier in a case of a development of new variants.

Speaking at a press briefing on Friday detailing the latest Covid trends in the country, health minister Joe Phaahla, said in absence of development of new variants the fifth wave would likely hit the country closer to winter.

“Only high coverage vaccination will reduce the emergence of more variants,” Phaahla said.

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Phaahla raised concerns over the unstable decline in infections over the last 14 days with some provinces recording an increase. He described the trend as “confusing”.

“We have seen a less resilient decline in infections. The picture was that of a stalemate where there’s no serious decline and yet no worrying rise in infections. Instead of the curve flattening it has taken the shape of a plateau,” he said.

The Free State had a 20% increase followed by Gauteng at 17% and Mpumalanga 12% increase in infections compared to a previous week. Meanwhile, Limpopo province continued to record positivity rates higher than the national average of 9-12% , the province was above 20% consistently.

Re-opening of schools

Phaahla said the slight increases in the provinces could be attributed to the re-opening of schools.

“Our epidemiologists believe the stagnation in the slowing down of new infections can be linked to the opening of schools. In support of this is also an observation that over the last 14 days we have witnessed more infections among the young people below 20 years of age,” Phaahla said.

“It is possible that increased movement after holidays especially as schools open is also adding to this.”

Phaahla said he was optimistic the numbers would again decline.

“It is expected that by the end of February we will reach below 5% positivity which will signal stability,” he said.

There were reports of development of sub-variants of the Omicron variant, Phaahla said the impact of these “don’t seem to be a major factor”.

Hospitalisation remained stable with just over 5 000 admissions as of Thursday, with over 85% in general wards, 6,7% in high care and 8,4% in ICU.

Phaahla said there was no pressure on the health system.

According to the health stats, over 30 million doses were administered on Wednesday.

Phaahla said there was a low vaccine intake in the 18-34 years age group, he said this group was the “the most difficult to convince”.

“While the fourth wave remains stable even though we are not completely out of it while the rate remains above 10%, we know that the virus is still very far from being eliminated. The only way to get closer to normality safely is if more of us vaccinate, including taking boosters once we qualify.”

Weekly Covid-19 statistics

Breakdown of the weekly stats provided by the NICD:

– January 30: 2 226 new Covid-19 cases and 117 deaths.

– January 31: 1 366 new Covid-19 cases and 71 deaths.

– February 1: 3 085 new Covid-19 cases and 195 deaths

– February 2: 4 502 new Covid-19 cases and 175 deaths

– February 3: 3 266 new Covid-19 cases and 82 deaths