South Africans can expect an even darker winter than last year, according to energy expert Chris Yelland.

“Nobody can predict the future, not even Eskom, and they often get it wrong. But in general, I believe that this year is going to be more difficult than last year,” says Yelland.

He says his prediction is based on hard facts and the reality that Eskom is unable to function at full capacity.

Challenges faced by Eskom include the August explosion at Medupi power station’s Unit 4 generator, which took 800MW of power out of the grid and will take two years to restore; and the life extension programme being undertaken at Koeberg, which has resulted in one of the units being shut down for five months.

Yelland says when work on this unit is completed, the second unit will be shut down, also for five months.

But this is not the end of Eskom’s woes, says Yelland.

Eskom had some problems with the Koeberg unit that is currently undergoing a life extension programme, which means it will be off for another five months sometime next year.

This will leave South Africa without 900MW for a collective period of 15 months and add pressure to an already constrained grid that regularly experiences both breakdowns and planned maintenance outages.

“I believe this year will be a record year for load-shedding,” says Yelland.

Although sabotage has been mentioned as a contributing factor to Eskom’s challenges, Yelland says this should not be used as an excuse for poor performance.

“Conspiracies are difficult things to undertake, but having said that, there is evidence in at least one case where it appears that powerlines were deliberately collapsed, and they found evidence that the steelwork had been cut.”

He says one of Eskom’s biggest challenges is the general loss of morale and motivation, caused in main by people not doing their jobs properly.