The drought is not over

One swallow does not make a summer and last week’s rain that came as a result of a cold front does not mean the end of the drought.

The South African Canegrowers’ Association (SACGA) director of regional services, Dr Kathy Hurley said El Nino was strengthening and it was predicted that dry conditions would continue into 2016.

For us it means that as El Nino strengthens, we get drier and warmer on the East Coast, the same as California and areas in the west of Canada where there have been droughts and fires.

Hurley said natural disasters were increasing in number and frequency, and affected most countries in Africa. She said the current drought comes on the back of the 2010 drought and droughts were our new reality.

This means that our disaster relief strategies have to be bolstered at all levels – households, towns, cities, provinces and nationally.

“Everyone needs to have a plan and we all need to treat water as liquid gold,” said Hurley.

She said cold fronts that hit the Cape and moved across the country used to bring KZN rain in winter but lately those fronts have been missing KZN, moving out to sea or upwards to Gauteng.

Many areas have received between 20 and 200 mm last week, which makes the rainfall statistics look good as 200 mm of rain at this time of year is far above the long term mean, but it has washed out to sea and is not available to the farmers or general public (Hazelmere Dam has only raised by three percent to 29 percent because it has not rained much in the catchment area. Only 14 percent of the water in the dam is usable).

“What is beneficial to farmers is regular smaller rainfall events that replenish the water table and provides a regular supply of water to the crop,” said Hurley.

She said at the moment the rain has saved cane roots but where roots have already died and crops have failed, the only solution will be to replant fields at a considerable cost. Farmers make a return on newly planted crops over a period of eight to 10 years and a break in this cycle (drought or flood) means they have to spend money on replanting before getting a return on the previous investment, indebting themselves further.

Hurley said at the moment SACGA’s focus was on working with as many stakeholders as possible to provide a basket of solutions for farmers and workers. She said the R1.7 billion that has been removed from the local economies of Ballito and smaller towns north of Ballito has extended the pressure from agriculture along the supply chain and that was not good for local businesses.

Ilembe district municipality mayor, Welcome Mdabe said at last week’s emergency drought summit held at Umhlali Country Club, that our communities would be overcome by crime (due to rising unemployment) if something was not done now to save farmers.