While healthy dam levels offer reassurance for households, sugarcane farmers face a far less certain summer as El Niño threatens hotter, drier conditions.

Two weeks ago, the Courier reported that Hazelmere Dam’s healthy water levels provide protection against drought, with Siza Water operations manager Kobus Fourie confirming that local water supplies remain stable (‘Hazelmere Dam offers drought buffer‘, October 16).

Hazelmere Dam was at 87.67% at time of reporting and Fourie said that only prolonged drought conditions for between one and two years would require additional measures.

But for farmers who depend on rainfall, full dams offer little help.South African Sugarcane Research Institute (SASRI) director Dr

Shadrack Moephuli warned that strong El Niño conditions could bring below-average rainfall during the 2026/27 summer, raising concerns about a repeat of the severe 2015/16 drought.

Moephuli said El Niño was expected to persist through summer before weakening towards mid-2027.

“Data from SASRI weather stations show an increasing annual rainfall trend over the last decade, influenced by five La Niña events. However, the current strong El Niño conditions warrant a cautious approach, given that some of the region’s worst droughts (e.g. 2010 and 2015) coincided with El Niño events,” he said.

Historical records from Darnall, Gledhow and Maidstone sugar mills show the past effects of El Niño summers on rainfall patterns.

At Maidstone, average rainfall from November to February was 432mm during El Niño seasons, compared with 560mm during La Niña seasons – almost 23% less.

“Most North Coast farming operations are rainfed; therefore, an extended drought could have severe consequences, including yield losses, crop failure and costly crop re-establishment.”

Moephuli cautioned that El Niño does not necessarily mean continuous drought, with significant rainfall still possible.

“The message has been to adopt a conservative approach, with decisions based on field conditions rather than fixed calendar planning. Recent good rainfall across the region has been a welcome relief,” he said.