Two Bits – A peek into the future . . .

What do you think the future holds for the greater Ballito and the Dolphin Coast? Having run the Courier for 30 years plus I have had an excellent viewing platform for how the area has changed, but I am not sure that anyone can predict with any degree of certainty what will or will not happen in our region. It is often said there are two types of forecasts … lucky or wrong. But this is how I see it.

First, some background on the region: According to the 2011 Census, the population of Ilembe district is over 600 000 and KwaDukuza municipal area is home to a third of that. As can be expected, the lowest income households are in the rural areas of Ndwedwe and Maphumulo, where more than 65% of young people are without jobs.

Long gone are the days when agriculture was the biggest employer. Today that sector provides about 10 000 jobs, compared with government (12 000), property and finance (14 000), and the big one – retail and tourism – at 22 000. People are moving to the towns at an ever-increasing rate (Maphumulo and Ndwedwe populations are shrinking at 2.5% a year). The towns of KwaDukuza and Ballito are of course the generators of most jobs and are the areas of highest nett wealth.

The official figures, which are six years old, say that Ballito has a permanent population of 20 000. I would guess it is considerably higher today – more like 30 000 – given the rapid growth of the area over the past five years. And that shoots up to around 100 000 in season when all of the 7 500 houses and apartments are filled.

I ascribe the growth of the area to a handful of primary drivers: The shift of Durban business northwards to Umhlanga Ridge, the success of Zimbali estate, which has fuelled other estates like Simbithi, Dunkirk, Seaward, Brettenwood and Palm Lakes, and the move of Durban airport to Tongaat.

Five years ago, who would have predicted the building of a R1.6 billion regional shopping centre in Ballito? People ask, where is the population to support it? The developers have a string of other malls to their names around the country and they are confident that the permanent population is going to grow in leaps and bounds over the next five to 10 years. Remember when Gateway was opened in 2001? People asked the same question at the time, and it was successful within a few years.

What is known from the 2016 Roots media survey is that about half the local population is travelling to Gateway regularly for the shops and entertainment unavailable locally. From March that will likely change and we can expect at least half of that money to be spent locally.

I am not sure how well Dube Tradeport is doing at the moment, but it appears that government is committed to a growth strategy for this region. Of particular interest has been the rapid rollout of fibre optic networks by Telkom and other players over the past year. A reliable, high-speed network will fuel growth in the Information Technology field, attracting companies that are not tied down to a geographic location, such as software developers, call centres, graphic designers and publishers, website developers etc. And a whole host of industries that haven’t been invented yet, probably!

In that light, the Entrepreneur programme run by the Ilembe Chamber of Commerce has seen a major increase in the number of people wanting mentorship and training to start their own businesses. Who knows what could develop out of that?

It is also significant that today five international airlines offer direct flights to King Shaka and they see this area as a growing tourist and business destination. What is rapidly becoming clear is that Ballito has become an aspirational destination to people attracted by the lifestyle and prepared to commute to Durban, Johannesburg and elsewhere for work.

It would seem logical then, to expect an influx of people attracted to the new mall (which will create 1 800 permanent jobs), and to start service industries needed by the mall and the airport. Many of the jobs will be able to be filled by locals, but many middle management positions will have to be imported. So, where will they live?

The high cost of land dictates that housing is much more expensive than Durban. House prices range from a few million in older parts of Ballito to R30 million and more in the swankier estates. A first-time buyer needs to earn about R45 000 a month to afford the repayment on a R1.5m house, and about R30 000 for an apartment of around R1m, that is if they can find one.

So it would appear that there is an opportunity going begging for developing rental accommodation. A few developers have spotted the gap for apartments in Compensation and Westbrook where land is slightly cheaper, and as the economy picks up it is likely to be market of rapid growth.

Another significant factor in determining how the local economy grows is the long-term plans of the largest landowner in the region, Tongaat Hulett. They recently launched the big ticket Sibaya estate, but Cornubia to the south of the airport with 28 000 dwellings will cater for much of the middle and lower income market. Closer to home, TH has advanced plans for three nodes: Compensation, Dudley Pringle dam and Tinley Manor. Compensation is intended to be a mixed use, office, light industrial and residential, Dudley Pringle mixed residential and Tinley Manor South bank is aimed at the middle to higher income office and residential market. When they will be launched is anybody’s guess, but all the building blocks are in place for when they see an upturn coming.

The challenge to be faced is the readiness of the infrastructure to cope with this growth: roads, electricity and water. Water needs are likely to be addressed by the raising of Hazelmere dam wall and the Lower Tugela bulk supply scheme, but roads and reliable electricity need to be addressed urgently by government.

What is certain in my mind is that the region is headed for significant growth and that there will be a great number of opportunities for the shrewd investor over long-term future.
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Good patriotic spirit being shown by the Regal Inn in Ballito, but as reader Mike Murphy points out, it is important to fly the flag the right way up. An upside down flag is recognised as a distress call. Maybe a sign of the times . . .?
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I was sitting in a bar one day and two really large women came in, talking in an interesting accent.
So I said, “Cool accent, are you two ladies from Ireland?”
One of them snarled at me, “It’s Wales, dumbo!”
So I corrected myself, “Oh, right, so are you two whales from Ireland?”
That’s about as far as I remember.