While the MK Party won the most wards, it is the IFP that has ended up as the largest party in Alfred Duma Local Municipality.

The MK Party swept through Ladysmith, annihilating the ANC support base and winning 17 wards to technically become the largest party by ward win. This, however, does not translate into being the single largest party because, with PR candidates included, it is the IFP who are the biggest winners, securing 24 seats (only 13 wards) to the MK Party’s 22.

While the ANC only won three wards, they have ended up with 16 seats and the DA trail with five seats (three wards).

Make no mistake, this is a phenomenal performance for the DA. The surprise is the ABCD Party, who secured three seats (one ward). Mayibuye, the SACP and EFF all trail with one seat each, thanks to the PR system. 

What does this all mean come Monday? Well, for the IFP, the loss of key wards like Ward 20 and Ward 33, to name just a couple, has meant they desperately need a coalition to stay in power.

Luckily for them, the DA’s KZN leadership has publicly ruled out coalitions with the MKP and EFF. The IFP, meanwhile, has not yet formally entered coalition negotiations, according to its spokesperson yesterday (November 6). Should they, this could be what they choose:

Without either the IFP or ANC, the MKP would struggle to assemble a majority from the smaller parties. Especially as many are on record as not being prepared to work with the MKP.

The ANC has 16 of the 73 seats, making it the third-largest party. It needs another 21 seats to reach the 37-seat majority.

Its two realistic majority options are:

– ANC + IFP = 40 seats

– ANC + MKP = 38 seats

So, if both the IFP and MKP are unwilling to work with the ANC, the ANC cannot form a majority coalition using the remaining parties. Even adding the DA, ABCD, EFF, SACP and Mayibuye gives it only 27 seats.

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