South Africa warned of heatwaves as El Niño gains strength
Brace for a potentially drier summer as El Niño sets in and is expected to persist for the rest of 2026
South Africans are being urged to prepare for a hotter and potentially drier summer as El Niño conditions continue to strengthen across the Pacific Ocean, with climate experts warning that above-normal temperatures and an increased risk of heatwaves are expected from August through December.
The ENSO Reference Group, made up of climate experts from several South African research institutions, said El Niño is firmly established and is expected to persist for the rest of 2026, with a significant chance of intensifying into a strong or even very strong event by late spring or early summer, The Witness reports.
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Sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region, which strongly influences southern Africa’s climate, are already about 1.7°C above average, placing the current event in the moderate El Niño category.
While experts cautioned that every El Niño behaves differently and its impacts cannot be predicted with certainty, they warned that conditions are becoming increasingly favourable for a warmer and drier season.
What could El Niño mean for South Africa?
According to the ENSO Reference Group:
- Above-normal temperatures are expected from August through December, increasing the likelihood of hot spells and heatwaves.
- Below-normal rainfall is becoming more likely across parts of South Africa’s summer rainfall region from September to November.
- By October to December, below-average rainfall is expected to become the dominant weather pattern across much of the country.
- Agriculture remains one of the sectors most at risk if dry conditions persist.
The group noted that South Africa enters the season in a stronger position than during previous droughts, thanks to good rainfall during the last summer season, which has left dam levels and soil moisture generally healthy.
However, they warned that prolonged dry conditions combined with high temperatures could still have significant impacts.
The ENSO Reference Group urged the public to rely on credible weather information and avoid sensational reports about the developing El Niño event.
Climate experts will continue monitoring conditions and are expected to provide an update during the 2026 El Niño Summit in September.
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