KZN sardine run in limbo amid warmer water conditions

Sardine activity has become noticeably quieter, most likely as a result of these warmer conditions, says scientist

June 22, 2026

Tamlyn Cramer 2 minutes read

Annual sardine run temporarily halted as KZN upper south coast waters warm up Photo: Dr Ryan Daly/SAAMBR

Those who follow KwaZulu-Natal’s sardine run each year may be thinking it’s all over before it even really began.

According to the experts, however, it appears the sardines are on hold.

What has been dubbed the ‘greatest shoal on earth’, got officially under way when the first sardines were netted off the coast of Port Edward on 13 June.

Following this, more sardines were netted at several locations along the KZN south coast, including Southbroom, Ramsgate and uMzumbe.

With much excitement generated from these early catches, the sardine run appears to have gone quiet.
Oceanographic Research Institute (ORI) senior scientist, Dr Ryan Daly explains.

“Sea temperature plays a critical role in determining the movement and distribution of sardines along the coast.

“On 13 June, sea surface temperatures at Port Edward were a favourable 19.5°C, creating suitable conditions for sardines to move northward.

“However, conditions changed rapidly over the following days. By 16 June, water temperatures on the upper south coast had risen to approximately 23.5°C, while warm water continued to persist around the Durban region.

“Sardines generally favour cooler water temperatures, and the intrusion of warmer water onto the KZN coast can slow or temporarily halt their northward progression.

“Since 18 June, sardine activity has become noticeably quieter, most likely as a result of these warmer conditions.

“While this may appear concerning, it is not unusual and does not necessarily indicate the end of the run.

“In fact, there are several encouraging signs that suggest the season may still have plenty to offer. “Large concentrations of baitfish remain present along the south coast, including substantial mixed shoals of red-eyes, mackerel and sardines.

“Perhaps most promising are recent reports of large shoals of sardines along the Wild Coast.

“These observations suggest that significant numbers of fish remain to the south of KwaZulu-Natal and could still move north if environmental conditions become favourable.

“Our current expectation is that if cooler water once again pushes onto the KZN coast, sardines are likely to reappear in greater numbers.

“As always, the sardine run is heavily influenced by changing oceanographic conditions, and the coming weeks will determine just how far the migration progresses this year.

“For now, all eyes remain on the ocean as we wait to see what the next cold-water pulse will bring.”

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