Sharp decrease in SA automotive exports in December due to uncertainty around US tariffs

There was a sharp decrease in South African automotive exports due to uncertainty about United States (US) tariffs, as the country waits for the US administration to decide whether South Africa will remain part of Agoa, and the US president is mulling another 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran.

South Africa’s trade surplus narrowed in December as a sharp decline in exports of vehicles and transport equipment weighed on overall exports. However, Jee-Avan der Linde, senior economist at Oxford Economics Africa, says the latest trade statistics show that from November, goods imports fell by 5.8% to R141.1 billion in December, while exports decreased by 12.5% to R164.3 billion.

Consequently, South Africa recorded a preliminary trade surplus of R23.2 billion (compared with a revised surplus of R37.9 billion in November). Year-on-year, exports increased by 3.4%, while imports decreased by 2.2%.

Van der Linde points out that exports were pulled lower compared with November by precious metals (-26%) and vehicles and transport equipment (-39%). On the import side, decreases were driven by chemicals and crude oil (-5.0%) and machinery and electronics (-17%).

ALSO READ: SA starts to feel impact of US tariff, especially in automotive exports

Size of SA’s automotive trade

He says when it comes to trade partners, South Africa logged a R31.3 billion merchandise trade surplus with the African continent during December, while recording a R8.3 billion trade surplus with Europe. At the same time, South Africa registered a trade shortfall of R28.1 billion with Asia and a R1.5 billion trade surplus with the US.

Why is this important? Van der Linde says South Africa recorded a preliminary merchandise trade surplus of R201.6 billion in 2025, slightly higher than the R197.1 billion surplus in 2024. Exports increased by 1.9% last year, while imports were 1.8% higher.

“In the year ahead, mineral price tailwinds should support export receipts, while lower oil prices should weigh on domestic goods imports. Exposure to US tariffs is concentrated in manufacturing, especially of vehicles.

ALSO READ: Agoa clears hurdle, but probably not good news for SA

What happens to automotive exports in Agoa?

“Without progress on the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), conditions in 2026 are likely to resemble the second half of 2025, with manufacturing pressured by the loss of tariff-free US access and intensified competition from Chinese exports.

“The department of trade, industry and competition is reviewing a potential 50% tariff on car imports from China and India – a move that could be diplomatically sensitive, given that all three countries are Brics members.”

Meanwhile, he says, the proposed additional 25% US tariff targeting countries that do business with Iran has not been implemented, and there have been no further updates since the announcement. “If enacted, it would likely mirror the reciprocal tariffs, with salient mineral exports to the US likely excluded. South Africa has limited trade with Iran, with the main commercial link in telecommunications.

ALSO READ: Devastating impact of US tariffs on SA automotive sector even before implementation

Trade-restrictive measures testing SA’s automotive export competitiveness

In addition, the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa (Naamsa) said in a statement on the new vehicle sales issued on Friday, that the proliferation of trade-restrictive measures and evolving industrial policies in advanced economies continues to test South Africa’s automotive export competitiveness and market access conditions.

In addition, the organisation says, deepening trade and industrial arrangements between Western and Eastern economies, including preferential trade agreements, regional content rules and strategic supply chain realignments, are expected to pose upward risks to South Africa’s vehicle export competitiveness and market share in certain traditional export destinations.”

These developments underscore the growing importance of cost competitiveness and policy certainty in sustaining South Africa’s export performance over the medium to long term, Naamsa said.