SA set for mixed winter weather as SAWS warns of higher temperatures and variable rainfall

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has issued its seasonal outlook for June to October, forecasting mixed weather conditions across South Africa, including above-normal rainfall in parts of the eastern coastal regions and widespread above-normal temperatures.

According to the Seasonal Climate Watch, winter rainfall will largely be confined to the south-western, southern and eastern coastal regions, with the eastern coastline expected to receive above-normal rainfall during winter and early spring.

However, below-normal rainfall is forecast for the south-western and southern coastal areas over the same period.

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SAWS said these conditions are linked to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is currently in a neutral phase but is expected to shift rapidly towards an El Niño state within the coming month. The system is projected to strengthen into early summer and persist through the 2026/ 27 summer season.

The weather service noted that above-normal rainfall in the eastern coastal regions could improve water availability by increasing surface runoff into dams and reservoirs, boosting storage levels for domestic, industrial and agricultural use.

However, SAWS cautioned that intense rainfall may overwhelm stormwater and sewage systems in vulnerable areas, increasing the risk of flash flooding, particularly in low-lying communities and near bridges.

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At the same time, below-normal rainfall in the south-western and southern regions, combined with higher temperatures, may increase evaporation and place additional strain on already water-scarce areas.

“Such conditions, coupled with largely forecast above-normal minimum and maximum temperatures for most parts of the country during the forecast period, are likely to increase water loss, adding pressure on water-scarce regions,” SAWS said.

The forecast also indicates that higher temperatures may increase electricity demand because of greater reliance on cooling systems, particularly during early spring. SAWS urged decision-makers to communicate potential impacts to communities and key sectors.

Health risks were also highlighted in the outlook. SAWS warned that above-normal rainfall in some regions could increase the risk of waterborne diseases, flooding-related injuries and contamination of water sources, particularly in flood-prone areas.

In drier regions, persistent low rainfall may worsen sanitation and hygiene conditions, while widespread above-normal temperatures could increase the risk of heat-related illnesses, especially among vulnerable groups such as children, the elderly, outdoor workers and people with chronic conditions.

The weather service also cautioned that warmer conditions could result in higher ultraviolet exposure during clear-sky periods, increasing the risk of sunburn and long-term skin damage.