Over the past few weeks, Tshwane and Gauteng have seen a surge in coronavirus infections – but no increase in hospitalisations and deaths.

“We do not call this surge a wave yet,” says Witwatersrand Professor Bruce Mellado, who is also part of the Gauteng Coronavirus Command Council.

“Although it is too early to jump to conclusions, its impact is less severe than the fourth wave. The number of hospitalisations and mortality may change, but they are very low,” Mellado says.

From April 21-28, Gauteng recorded 14 842 cases with Tshwane and Johannesburg accounting for most infections.

The infections continued to climb over the weekend and the province recorded 6 736 – over 40% of the country’s infections. This was compared to the jump of the week of April 7-14, which had 4 065 infections.

The province has recorded 20 965 Covid-related deaths thus far. As of April 28, 1 001 people were hospitalised with 166 of those in high intensive care after contracting Covid-19.

“It has already been almost two weeks after the surge started. If this surge was going to have a significant impact, we should have already seen an increase in mortality and hospitalisations.

“The hospitalisations remain at a level at which they can be managed. Although the current stats do not show a low number, there hasn’t been a strong increase.

“This shows that the province has been dominated by reinfections and those are unlikely to lead to hospitalisations.

“We are in a middle of a surge – but it is not yet big enough to say that it is a wave,” says Mellado.

This increase in infections was expected as the cold season started in April.

“Winter always increases the probability of community transmission because we stop things such as opening windows for ventilation,” Mellado says.

People with pre-existing conditions such as cancer, diabetes, hypertension, chronic lung conditions and asthma, among others, remain at a higher risk of severe illness and death when they contract Covid-19 and are not vaccinated.

People in the 60-69 age group account for most fatalities with a tally of 5 202.

This week (until May 6) would give the national health department a clearer picture as to whether the fifth wave started earlier, says health minister Joe Phaahla.

It will also show whether it was driven by sub-variants or was an early spike driven by the Easter weekend, which also coincided with Ramadan for Muslims and Passover for Jewish faith gatherings.

He said last week there was a 137% increase in new cases compared to the week before that.

“The new steep rise is driven mainly by higher rates of infection in Gauteng, KZN and the Western Cape – the three provinces account for 85% of the cases in the last seven days,” he says.

It was still uncertain whether a new wave will be driven by a new variant nicknamed Pi, which is more transmissible and evades immunity.

At this stage, sub-variants of Omicron called B.4 and B.5, which are different to the original B.1, are dominant. They, however, haven’t changed enough to new variants of concern.

Covid-19 remains a threat, Phaahla says, adding that “we cannot afford to drop all prevention measures”.

Tshwane breakdown of infections from April 21-28:

– Ga-Rankuwa, Mabopane, Winterveldt, Soshanguve, Rosslyn, Karen Park, Wonderboom, Akasia, Nina Park, The Orchards, Amandasig, Theresa Park, Pretoria North (557);

– Hammanskraal, Temba, Suurman, Dilopye, Stinkwater, Ramotse, New Eersterust, Kameeldrift, Pyramid/Rooiwal, Doornpoort, Kekana Gardens, Marokolong, Randstown, Kanana (281)

– Atteridgeville, Laudium, Pretoria CBD, Hercules, Danville, Saulsville, Lotus Gardens, Pretoria West (1 146);

– Lyttelton, Eldoraigne, Waterkloof, Olievenhoutbosch, Rooihuiskraal, Centurion, Brooklyn, Hatfield (1 175);

– East Lynne, Rayton, Cullinan, De Wagensdrift, Refilwe, Silverton, Onverwacht (110);

– Eersterust, Lethabong, Mamelodi, Silver Lakes, Garsfontein, Lynnwood, Queenswood, Wilgers, Waltloo, Equestria, Mooikloof, Brummeria (1 013); and

– Ekangala, Sokhulumi, Dark City, Zithobeni, Bronkhorstspruit, Kanana, Rethabiseng (36).