“I would suggest booking flights at least a month and preferably two to three months ahead of the date of departure, unless you want to pay what we call surge prices.”

This is the advice of aviation expert Desmond Latham on limited flight capacity and rising input costs that have pushed local South African flight prices to excessive levels on the eve of the festive season. Tickets cost on average at least 50% more than at the beginning of the year, while jet fuel now costs around 200% more than a year ago.

Add to the mix the reality that demand is outstripping supply and you will understand why South Africans are shocked at the prices when booking air travel. Statistics South Africa reported in June that passenger transport by air increased by 49.5% between May 2021 and May 2022.

The supply problem has been exasperated by the demise of South Africa’s domestic airlines post the Covid-19 pandemic. The collapse of SA Express, Mango and Comair’s British Airways and Kulula in the past two years has left the country being serviced by only Airlink, FlySafair, Lift and CemAir. 1time ceased operations in 2012 and Nationwide in 2008.

Latham is, however, quick to point out that escalating costs and a greatly reduced available seat capacity are not the only reasons for the unprecedented rise in domestic flight prices.

“A lack of competition exacerbates the situation. However, fuel accounts for 74% of the cost of flying an airliner. As the rand has lost more than 25% of its value against the dollar, and oil prices have shot up, these input costs are having a significant effect on flight operation planning and costs.”

Those who still haven’t finalised their travel plans for the December/January holiday period will do well to heed Latham’s advice and book flights as a matter of urgency.

A search on the morning of October 5 showed the following prices for return flights between Johannesburg and Cape Town, departing on December 19 and returning on January 2, 2023:

FlySafair

Jhb–CT: R1 831 (hand luggage) / R2 031 (1 checked bag, 1 hand luggage)

CT–Jhb: R2 630 (hand luggage) / R2 842 (1 checked bag, 1 hand luggage)

Total: R4 461 / R4 873

Lift

Jhb–CT: R2 075 (hand luggage) / R2 160 (1 checked bag, 1 hand luggage)

CT–Jhb: R3 215 (hand luggage) / R3 300 (1 checked bag, 1 hand luggage)

Total: R5 290 / R5 460

CemAir

Jhb–CT: R2 559.46 (1 checked bag, 1 hand luggage)

CT–Jhb: R3 306.96 (1 checked bag, 1 hand luggage)

Total: R5 866.42

Airlink

Jhb–CT: R2 411.51 (1 checked bag, 1 hand luggage)

CT–Jhb: R3 676.51 (1 checked bag, 1 hand luggage)

Total: R6 088.02

Local travellers shouldn’t expect a reprieve or significant price reduction in domestic flights anytime soon. It will take time before these dark clouds lift, says Latham.

“Global aviation has been affected by pilot shortages, cost input surges and sudden demand. There are too few baggage handlers. There are not enough air traffic controllers. As we recovered from Covid, we were hit by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has led to a global impact on fuel costs. I don’t see any of this somehow evaporating in the next two or three quarters, perhaps as long as 24 months.”

After the grounding of Comair in June, the Competition Commission warned local airlines about price gouging, stating “ … the situation that stranded passengers find themselves in should not be unduly exploited by other airlines… The Commission wishes to warn airlines it will not hesitate to act swiftly and decisively if there’s evidence of price gouging.”

Latham scoffs at the Commission’s stance.

“The Competition Commission has no place protecting prices of flights. They would do well to probe the prices of landing fees, certification, apron fees, fuel taxes, fuel price hikes, high aviation taxes generally and other costs, like power and rates, before interfering. They are not in a strong legal position if they decide to begin snooping around the aviation business.”