Despite the Phala Phala farm robbery scandal hanging over his head, President Cyril Ramaphosa is in a strong position to be re-elected ANC president at next week’s national elective conference.

This is the view of political analysts, who cited ‘glaring’ weaknesses in the ANC faction opposed to Ramaphosa as his strength ahead of the crucial elective conference.

Grounds to activate impeachment proceedings

Since the release of the independent panel’s report which recommended that there were grounds for Parliament to activate impeachment proceedings against Ramaphosa in light of his alleged role in attempts to conceal the theft of thousands of US dollars at his Phala Phala farm, there has been speculation that he would resign as both ANC leader and president of the country.

However, the speculations were on Saturday laid to rest after Ramaphosa’s spokesperson Vincent Magwenya made it clear that the president was not contemplating resigning as leader of the country or withdrawing from the ANC presidential race.

Ramaphosa could still garner enough votes

Political analyst Susan Booysen, who is currently a visiting professor at the Wits School of Governance, said while the panel’s report has weakened Ramaphosa, he could still garner enough votes to return to his top ANC position at the elective conference.

“While it’s true that the Phala Phala report has impacted negatively on his standing within the broader ANC, I doubt if any drop-in support at the ANC conference would be sufficient to get him removed as party president.

“As we speak, his allies in the ANC are already out doing some damage control. They would be telling ANC members that the party needs him, and that his departure would be a major blow to the ANC,” she said.

Pushback against Ramaphosa

Ramaphosa is currently facing pushback from an ANC faction called the radical economic transformation (RET), which wants him removed as both the ANC and the country’s president. Prominent members of the ANC RET faction include suspended ANC secretary general Ace Magashule, former president Jacob Zuma, former ANC Women’s League (ANCWL) president Bathabile Dlamini and former ANC national assembly chief whip Tony Yengeni.

Given the fact that most of the high-ranking members of the ANC RET faction are either convicted criminals or people facing criminal charges, the faction has often been labelled as a grouping of ‘thieves’ by party members supporting Ramaphosa.

“As a result of that, most ANC members strongly believe that by defending Ramaphosa they are actually protecting the ANC from these tainted individuals. That’s why they see it as necessary to defend him irrespective of the Phala Phala report,” Booysen said.

University of KwaZulu-Natal political scientist Zakhele Ndlovu concurred with Booysen. “Most ANC members view Ramaphosa as the only option they have.

They fear that the ANC will lose power in the 2024 general elections in the event of the RET faction taking over control of the party.

“That’s why they would do everything to defend him,” he said.

Giving more ammunition to Ramaphosa was the fact that some people believe that the panel report was flawed.

The report, which concludes that he may have committed an impeachable offence, on the other hand says that members of the panel were unable to test the various allegations against him.

Magwenya has since indicated that Ramaphosa would be taking the report on review.

Ramaphosa’s plans to challenge the report were revealed as Parliament was preparing to debate the report during its special sitting scheduled for tomorrow.

While Parliament needs a simple majority to approve the report, it requires a two-thirds majority to impeach Ramaphosa.

Constitutional law expert Lawson Naidoo said the findings of the panel carry little weight on the impeachment process.

“For example, Parliament can resolve to reject the panel’s report. So, the decision on whether the president should be impeached does not rest with the panel.

“It’s Parliament which has to decide whether impeachment proceedings should be instituted against Ramaphosa,” he said.

While the ANC has enough members in Parliament to have the panel’s report rejected, there are strong indications that party MPs aligned to the organisation’s RET faction would vote in favour of the adoption of the report in tomorrow’s special sitting.

The other hurdle which Ramaphosa would have to overcome was in the form of attempts by the RET faction to get this week’s ANC national executive committee (NEC) meeting to recall him as the country’s president.

However, both Booysen and Ndlovu were of the view that the RET faction within the ANC NEC was likely to struggle to get the support of other NEC members.

Ramaphosa, who on Sunday appeared in public for the first time since the release of the panel report on Wednesday, told reporters on the sidelines of the ANC NWC meeting in Johannesburg that he was ready to comply with whatever the NEC resolved on the Phala Phala matter.

According to Ramaphosa, it was agreed at yesterday’s NWC meeting that he should not be part of the gathering as it was about him.