While South Africa braces for the economic pinch of its impending exclusion from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), the decision is unlikely to deliver the devastating blow initially anticipated.

The Witness reports that experts warn that American businesses and workers also stand to lose from the disruption of established trade relations.

US President Donald Trump on Monday (November 2) notified Congress and the South African government of his intention to terminate the country’s participation in the preferential trade programme from January 1, 2027.

However, economists have cautioned against viewing the decision as a complete loss of access to the American market, pointing out that only a relatively small portion of South Africa’s exports to the US benefit from Agoa.

Independent economist and Trade Law Centre associate Eckart Naumann said that while the decision was regrettable, it did not spell economic doom for South Africa.

Naumann pointed out that approximately 10% of South Africa’s exports to the US fell within Agoa-eligible tariff lines, while the country’s biggest exports, including precious metals and minerals, were not dependent on the trade agreement.

The country’s top five tariff lines, Naumann said, accounted for almost two-thirds of its exports to the US in 2025, and these products were not subject to duties.

AgriSA, which represents a sector likely to be more affected by South Africa’s exclusion, cautioned against portraying the removal as a ban on the country’s exports to the US.

South Africa’s citrus exporters, which have been exporting their produce to the US under the Agoa arrangement, were likely to feel the pinch, with job losses anticipated if the exclusion becomes final in January 2027.

AgriSA CEO Johann Kotze said that while South Africa’s exclusion from Agoa would affect the competitiveness of the country’s exports, supplies to the US market would continue.

Kotze cautioned against sweeping statements about how the exclusion would affect South Africa’s agricultural sector.

“The implications must be assessed accurately and in proportion. Neither predictions of a complete market closure nor assurances of a negligible impact adequately reflect the circumstances of individual agricultural industries.”

Agricultural supply to continue

“It is important to distinguish between losing preferential tariff treatment and losing access to the American market. The announced withdrawal of Agoa eligibility would not constitute a ban on South African agricultural exports.

“Businesses would remain able to supply American customers, subject to applicable tariffs and other import requirements,” he said.

Trade, Industry and Competition Minister Parks Tau said the government had acknowledged the US decision but remained committed to finding a negotiated solution.

Tau said the South African government was ready to step in and support affected industries if the decision to exclude the country from Agoa became final.

“Government will undertake further engagements with social partners to optimise the support measures aimed at improving resilience and sustainability of the productive sectors whilst diversifying exports and protecting jobs,” he said.

American citrus jobs at risk

The Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa (CGA), however, said the US government should not ignore the fact that thousands of American jobs could be lost if South Africa were removed from the Agoa regime.

CGA chief executive Dr Boitshoko Ntshabele said the American market was also likely to suffer because South African citrus complemented domestic production by supplying fruit during the US off-season.

“Our citrus helps keep US consumers in the citrus category during the US off-season. Seasonal fresh produce does not threaten US jobs. It helps keep the US healthy, and also helps contain food inflation,” Ntshabele said.

The association said thousands of Americans were employed in importing, handling, distributing and retailing South African citrus, placing jobs throughout the American value chain at risk if the trade relationship was disrupted.

In his message to President Cyril Ramaphosa, Trump cited what he described as insufficient progress in fighting corruption, barriers imposed by Pretoria on the US and South Africa’s anti-US policies as reasons for the decision.

Tau said South Africa would continue engaging with the US while accelerating efforts to diversify its export markets.

By Wednesday (November 4), South Africa had 60 days to convince the US government that it should remain a beneficiary of Agoa.

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