Samuel Seeff, chairperson of the Seeff Property Group, expects a robust recovery for the housing market in 2026, with the Cape region maintaining its strength, while Gauteng will continue to lag until service issues are resolved.
He says the property market will end 2025 on a stronger footing compared to the previous year. Next year will be better provided the positive economic fundamentals hold, but it will largely remain a “tale of two markets,” with the Cape a seller’s market, and the rest of the country, including Gauteng, largely a buyer’s market.
We feel positive about the outlook for next year, buoyed by recent economic developments, which could create a conducive environment for improved economic performance and growth of the property market.
Stability and confidence are key factors. A favourable outcome from the Local Government Elections next year would be a further boost for the market. Already, we have seen a confidence surge following recent positive outcomes such as the FTAF Grey List exit, S&P credit rating upgrade to BB (the first in 20 years), job growth data, and improved economic outlook for next year signalled by the Finance Minister and Reserve Bank Governor.
The interest rate outlook is also the most favourable that it has been in recent years. This is underscored by the stability of the rand which has dipped close to breaking the ZAR17 to the USD barrier despite ongoing trade challenges, a significant lift to investor sentiment, he says.
Inflation has remained at a historic low, averaging just under 3.3% for the year, despite recent marginal increases and is comfortably within the Reserve Bank’s proposed new lower target range of 2-4%. We therefore see conditions as favourable for the Bank to consider at least two more rate cuts in the first half of 2026, starting with a cut at the end of January, says Seeff.
This will be a further boost for the market, and could see it move into a stronger recovery cycle in 2026, he says further. The series of interest rate cuts since mid-2024 have been crucial in providing “vital relief” to the economy and consumers. These cuts have lowered the cost of debt, freed up disposable income, and directly improved property affordability.
The savings on a R1m home loan over 20 years is now down by over R1,000 compared to mid-2024, which is a great incentive for buyers, especially first-time buyers. A recent 25-basis point cut, for example, results in a monthly saving of R168 on a R1,000,000 bond and R837 on a R5,000,000 bond over 20 years at prime.
Bank lending remains supportive of the market with faster approval rates and rate concessions for qualifying buyers, stimulating more demand which is good news for sellers and overall sales volumes, he says.
Price growth has improved to around 4.5% nationally which is slightly ahead of the national inflation rate with the Cape well ahead at around 7% while growth while Gauteng has remained low at around 2% at best. A stronger market will boost this further which is good news for sellers.
While the Cape is largely a seller’s market with continued strong sales momentum and stock shortages, we continue to see a buyer’s market in Gauteng and elsewhere with more adequate stock levels and better value to be had. The upside, says Seeff, is that buyers are still able to find excellent value there.
The rental market is expected to continue its strong performance in 2026, boosted by the continued influx of people to the cities and bigger towns. Rental growth should be positive while stock shortages in the high demand areas will be favourable for those looking to invest in the rental market.
For buyers and investors, Seeff’s advice is clear: don’t wait for further cuts. “Those who wait too long may end up regretting not taking the leap when the opportunity presented,” he cautions, as property prices continue rising and the market is set for a meaningful recovery.
Issued by Gina Meintjes
