“Millions of voters who usually vote for the ANC did not vote in the previous elections, and it hurt the ANC,” says political analyst Piet Croucamp.

According to Croucamp, this trend is bound to repeat itself on November 1, with even more repercussions for the ruling party.

WATCH: Izak du Plessis asks ordinary South Africans if they will vote on November 1.

In its election campaign, the ANC brought a message of repentance to its voters. President Cyril Ramaphosa toured the country, promising voters that the party is renewing itself and will deliver on the promises made over the past 27 years.

But, as Croucamp and other analysts have warned, many disillusioned and disgruntled voters are giving the party the cold shoulder.

Less trust, fewer voters

Research network Afrobarometer recently found that the ANC has lost much credibility with South Africans.

In 2016, some ANC voters protested over poor service delivery and, consequently, chose to stay away from the polls, rather than change their votes.

According to Croucamp, a similar pattern can be expected this year. He says about 13 million of South Africa’s 40 million eligible voters have not registered for the elections, which is about one in three.

In the past, South Africa had a voter turnout of around 70%, but in the 2019 elections, only 65% of registered South African voters turned up at the polls, according to the Electoral Commission of South Africa.

For the 2021 municipal elections, 26.2 million eligible South Africans have registered to vote, which – percentage wise – is less than in 2016 (26 333 353), proving the point Croucamp and other analysts are making about more people choosing not to vote.

Seven reasons why you should vote

Top reasons why you should vote: https://www.elections.org.za/pw/Voter/Why-Vote