Expert warns of second Covid-19 surge in Gauteng

“The possibility of such a surge is very high if population adherence to public health measures reduces,” said University of the Witwatersrand professor Bruce Mellado.

Mellado made the remarks during the provincial Covid command council’s weekly update on Friday.

Although Covid-19 daily new infections have been relatively low over the past two months, he cited France as a cautionary example.

“France had a surge then levelled off, but now they are in the middle of a second surge that is way bigger than the first one.”

Cases in Gauteng over the past few months have remained on an average of 300 while during the peak had over 1 000 daily cases.

Mellado, who has drafted models on Covid-19 trends in the province, said the public and government needed to continue with health measures to avoid such another surge.

“We have learnt from other countries that a reduction in cases does not mean a second surge cannot happen,” he said.

“We can stop the pandemic in its tracks through efforts from the government and the population, but it does not mean the pandemic is over.

“Monitoring is important to understand when the second surge might happen. Based on the experience of other countries there is a possibility of a second surge. We should not let our guard down,” Mellado said.

While the country placed under level 1, Gauteng Premier David Makhura said the risk of the second surge was “still staring us in the face”.

“The pandemic is not over and it is not time to let our guard down,” he said.

“We should not become complacent with people are not wearing their masks. They think Covid-19 is gone. We must continue to be vigilant and wear our masks.”

Acting Department of Health head Lesiba Malotana said the number of cases remained low, while Gauteng remains the epicentre of the pandemic.

The province has the highest number of recoveries 198 022 of the 222 038, translating to 89% of the overall cases by Wednesday.

“Although there was a slight spike at the beginning of the level 1, it has remained low. The infections have come down a lot.”

Johannesburg remained the region with the highest number of infections with Tshwane being the third.

“The Pretoria CBD and Laudium remained the hotspot in that region.”

Out of 172 113 public servants in Gauteng, 10 922 have tested positive since March.

This includes public health workers and educators.

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