Minister of Police Firoz Cachalia is expected to present South Africa’s latest quarterly crime statistics at 13:00 today (May 22), amid concerns that violent crime and kidnappings remain entrenched in several hotspots. 

A security analyst and an anti-crime activist believe some crime categories could show declines, but say violent crime and kidnappings are likely to remain serious concerns in key areas across the country. 

Lizette Lancaster from the Institute for Security Studies says that, if the past six quarters are anything to go by, most violent crime categories are expected to decline.   

She adds that the highest levels of violent crimes are typically recorded in the Eastern Cape, Western Cape, Gauteng and KZN. 

Too many guns in circulation 

“Most property crime has been decreasing for decades. The reasons are varied. We see better security systems, but also lower levels of crime reporting. The most concerning crimes that may show increases include attempted murders because of the high levels of illegal firearms in circulation,” she explains.  

Kidnappings have also been on the rise over the past two decades, says Lancaster, especially ransom cases where victims are snatched from a public place or during a robbery or hijacking to empty their bank accounts. 

She believes there could also be an increase in commercial crime, driven by incidents of fraud and cybercrime. 

Gangsterism  

“Crime, especially violent crime, is not evenly distributed across the country. For example, 50% of murders are located in only about 12% of police station areas,” she adds. 

Lancaster says interpersonal violence, often fuelled by alcohol or drugs, remains the largest driver of violence.

However, assaults, murder, organised crime and gangsterism are growing and spreading. 

Overall forecast grim 

Yusuf Abramjee, an anti-crime activist, says some crime categories are expected to show a decline or stabilisation, but he believes the overall picture of crime in the country will again be concerning. 

“Attention will again focus heavily on murder rates, particularly in Gauteng, KZN, the Eastern Cape and gang-affected parts of the Western Cape, where killings linked to organised crime, taxi violence and gang activity continue to drive the numbers,” he says. 

Abramjee explains that kidnappings are also expected to remain a major concern, especially in Gauteng, where cases linked to hijackings, extortion and business robberies have increased in recent years. 

Police under a spotlight 

“Gender-based violence figures, including rape and assault cases, are likely to remain under intense scrutiny amid ongoing concerns that many incidents still go unreported,” he says. 

Abramjee adds that the release of the statistics also comes at a sensitive time for the South African Police Service. “There is mounting public concern over corruption allegations, leadership controversies and weaknesses in detective and crime intelligence capacity,” he adds.  

Presenting the statistics with Cachalia will be Deputy Police Minister Cassel Mathale and the acting national commissioner of police, Lieutenant General Puleng Dimpane. 

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