Assault on Iran signals ‘oil crisis’

The last time there was a crisis this serious in the Middle East, during the Arab-Israel war of 1973, the rest of the world suffered in what is now called the “oil crisis”, as Arab oil producers reduced supplies and petrol stations everywhere ran out of fuel.

In South Africa, that manifested as draconian restrictions, including a ban on fuel sales after hours and over weekends, as well as a reduction in the national speed limit from 120km/h to 80km/h to conserve fuel.

When US President Donald Trump ordered the B-2 bombers to destroy Iran’s supposed nuclear weapon development facilities, he set the world on what might well be a similar trajectory to 1973.

This time, even if the Arab oil producers don’t announce an embargo, Iran may forcibly close the Strait of Hormuz, through which most oil flows… or the Houthi rebels in Yemen may resume attacks on merchant shipping and US Navy vessels in and around the Red Sea.

Those actions will have knock-on effects in increased transport charges and hiked fuel costs, which will, again, be felt around the world.

Worryingly, too, Russian Deputy President Dmitri Lebedev said “a number of countries are ready to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear warheads”. That would ratchet tensions up to a shade less than World War III in the minds of many people.

It also seems that despite the ongoing Israeli assault on Iran, Tehran is far from finished… and if you doubt that, look at the damage being visited on Israel. How long the Israeli population, concentrated as it is in a very small area compared to the size of Iran, will be able to tolerate the situation, remains to be seen.

Finally, will the US bombs bring the Iranians to the negotiating table – or will they harden their resolve to fight on?

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