Why South Africa can’t defend itself anymore

This is a war game scenario which could not exist in South Africa today but, in the mid-’90s, as the country transitioned to democracy, it would have been one of many discussed by officers of the SA Defence Force (SADF), soon to become the SANDF (SA National Defence Force).

A force of rebels has taken over the eastern parts of mineral-rich Zaire – now know as the Democratic Republic of the Congo or DRC – has killed civilians and is now laying siege to the town of Kisangani.

The government in Kinshasa sends out an urgent appeal for help to Pretoria.

Putting boots on the ground would take weeks and would be politically risky, especially if SA troops were to start coming home in body bags.

There is an alternative: send in the South African Air Force (SAAF). So a flight of Cheetah D multirole fighters – a version of the French Mirage developed locally with help of the Israelis – is scrambled in the early hours of the morning from the SAAF main base in Waterkloof, Pretoria, loaded up with sophisticated air-toground missiles and cannons.

As the sun peeps over the horizon in central Zambia, the Cheetahs link up with their airborne tanker, a converted Boeing 707 airliner also used by the SAAF as an airborne warning and control system.

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Not long after refuelling, the SAAF jets move into their strike profile, hitting rebel units and decimating them, saving the government in Kinshasa.

At that time, the SAAF, and the broader SADF, which knew it was about to get new political masters, realised the critical role in peacekeeping and peace enforcement which could be played by South African armed forces, at that time still the strongest and most experienced in Africa.

It was a vision which would gel with that of our second president, Thabo Mbeki, who believed this country could be the engine of an “African Renaissance” and the continent’s unbiased referee for internal conflicts.

At that time, it was a dream which could well have come true.

The SADF and, later, SANDF were well able to deal with any threat on the continent – and even in our territorial waters…. as a SA Navy Daphne-class submarine proved by “sinking” one of the US Navy’s most sophisticated guided-missile destroyers in an exercise off Cape Point.

It didn’t take long for the incoming government to get cosy with the already corrupt European arms industry, so we sowed up an arms deal which cost us more than R100 billion and equipped us with state-of-the-art systems like Swedish-made Gripen supersonic fighters and German frigates and submarines.

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These systems, good as they were, required maintenance and updating and the ANC government progressively reduced defence spending to the point where it is today.

The Gripen fighters – the handful still flying – are only used for shows, while the subs are often beached in dry dock.

Even the most sympathetic analysts would agree that our military would be comparatively easy pickings for a number of African armies and air forces – from Nigeria to Rwanda and even Zambia and Zimbabwe – who actually have newer equipment than we do.

And it is operational.

Our recent poor showing in the DRC, when our troops were humbled by M23 rebels, shows the extent of the slide.

Not only can we not dream about being Africa’s peacemaker, we cannot realistically guarantee the sanctity of our soil, airspace or territorial waters.

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