The current political instability in KZN could spill into other provinces, says political analyst Andre Duvenhage.
The ANC celebrates its 114th birthday on Thursday, but also wakes up to the shocking news that it is no longer part of a majority government in KwaZulu-Natal.
This comes after the National Freedom Party (NFP) announced it has pulled out of its coalition with the ANC, IFP, and DA. The party said it would hold a media briefing on Friday to address the residents in KZN.
This move changes the balance of forces in the 80-seat legislature, leaving the ruling coalition with 40 seats to govern with.
To have a majority in the legislature, parties must have 50% plus one.
Andre Duvenhage, a political analyst from North West University (NWU), told The Citizen that the NFP’s decision will negatively affect the already struggling ANC in KwaZulu-Natal.
The NFP has already pledged its support in voting with the MK party to remove Thami Ntuli as premier of KZN. Ntuli belongs to the IFP.
Duvenhage said if the NFP decides to support the MK party to take provincial power, then the ANC will feel the pinch.
“This will be an extremely bad situation for the ANC because this will give the MK party access to billions of rands and other resources within the provincial government, and they are going to use that for their own purposes,” he said.
Duvenhage said an MK party takeover in KZN will also stifle the plans the ANC has to rebuild the party in the province.
The ANC’s secretary-general, Fikile Mbalula, told the media last month that he would introduce a new team to replace the current Provincial Task Team (PTT). Their task will be to bring back lost support to the party.
“This is going to sabotage them. This was once a major ANC stronghold, and this is a major setback. It has the potential of even hurting them at the local government elections,” he said.
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How do the numbers work?
Duvenhage said the current stalemate over numbers in the legislature means the IFP, ANC, and DA coalition will have to seek one vote each time they adopt reports.
“They can function in terms of a minority government buying over one person here and there, but the party that is in the strongest position to control a minority government is the MK party,” he said.
The MK party currently has 37 seats, the IFP has 15, ANC has 14, DA has 11. EFF has two, and NFP has one seat.
Minority government in Gauteng
Gauteng is another problematic province for the ANC. They are running a minority government in this province and lobby other parties to vote with them on adopting certain reports, including the budget.
The mother body has also intervened in this province, and a Provincial Task Team (PTT) has been appointed to steer the party in the right direction and rebuild branches. The ANC in this province received 34% of the vote in last year’s general elections. They have also suffered a decline in membership in this province.
ANC co-convenor in KZN, Mike Mabuyakhulu told The Citizen on Thursday that his party would like to meet with the NFP to discuss their decision and its implications.
GPU has not collapsed
However, he reaffirmed that the government of provincial unity (GPU) has not collapsed.
“With the alleged withdrawal of the NFP from the GPU and the call for the resignation of MEC Shinga, the leading coalition of the ANC, the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) and the Democratic Alliance (DA) would stand at 40 members, meaning that the other parties would not enjoy the required majority 41 or more of its members to collapse the provincial government.
“Therefore, the GPU remains in place and committed to serving the people of KwaZulu-Natal,” said Mabuyakhulu.
Mbali Shinga
The DA’s provincial leader in KZN also said the ruling coalition has not fallen apart, but questioned the NFP’s reasons for withdrawing from the coalition and for withdrawing its MPL, Mbali Shinga, who is the MEC for Social Development.
Shinga is accused of defying her party by failing to support the MK party when it brought forward a motion of no confidence against Premier Thami Ntuli late last year.
She is also facing disciplinary action from her own party.
Meanwhile, the EFF believes the MK party should be in government in KZN, as it holds more seats than any other party in the province.
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