Experts agree that tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump are unlikely to have a major impact on South African sugar exports – but job losses could still occur.

The South African sugar industry, a key employer, is already under pressure from rising input costs, the sugar tax and climate variability. On April 2, Trump imposed a punitive 30% export tariff on South African goods, suspended for 90 days.

A 10% blanket tariff remains in place.

Cobus Oelofse, iLembe Chamber of Commerce, Industry and Tourism CEO, said discussions with local farmers, farmer associations and millers suggest little direct financial impact.

“From the perspective of the iLembe district economy, we are not significantly concerned about the direct implications of any US tariff revisions at this stage,” he said.

“The majority of commercial and small-scale farmers supply local mills, including Gledhow Sugar Mill, the only sugar mill within the iLembe District. Gledhow sells all its sugar into the local market.”

South Africa produces about two million tonnes of refined sugar annually, of which about 400 000 tonnes – or 20% – are exported. However, less than 5% of exports are shipped to the US, limiting direct exposure.

Pratish Sharma, South African Cane Growers Association director, and Maidstone Local Grower Council chairman, warned that tariffs could still have indirect effects.

“The knock-on effect is complicated and depends on many variables, such as the tariff levels against our competitors, the exchange rate and our production costs,” he said.

“While the local price of sugar should not be affected, any loss of income could lead to reductions in employment.”

Dr Thomas Funke, SA Canegrowers CEO, echoed concerns over job security.

“Any increase in US tariffs will harm rural livelihoods that depend on sugarcane farming. Even a 10% tariff has negative consequences for rural economies reliant on sugar production,” he said.

“South Africa remains a major global sugar producer, but competing against countries closer to the US market, like Brazil and Mexico, leaves us at an unfair disadvantage.”

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