Letter: Let’s be careful

Andy Smithen of Zinkwazi writes:

I write with considerable concern regarding my impressions of the behaviour of people in public spaces now that most Covid-19 related restrictions have been lifted.

The trigger for this letter is observations during time I spent at the beachfront in Ballito recently, which has to be one of the safer public spaces.

However, I saw things that made me think that attention to detail could make it safer.

This is important as we face a potential second wave.

The beach and restaurants were busy and it was good to see the return to a more relaxed environment.

But some fairly obvious precautions were being ignored.

There were groups of people outside the restaurants not wearing masks and not practising social distancing.

I know that there will be other public spaces where the situation will be worse so this letter is not aimed at the Ballito beachfront.

It is an appeal for responsible behaviour in general terms.

When we were heading rapidly up towards our first wave peak and lockdown levels 4 and 3 were in place President Ramaphosa referred to a doubling time of 12 days.

If we assume that a single infected person infects 1 other person, 2 people could be infected in 12 days, 4 in 24 days and potentially around 100 in less than 3 months.

Not all those people will recover easily.

One or two of them may die.

But do we really need to be concerned?

I would say yes.

Infection levels are currently low but a second wave remains possible.

This can be assessed using the ratio between daily new cases and daily recoveries.

A growth factor of 1 means maintenance of the status quo in which the number of new infections is off set by the number of people who have recovered in the same period.

A factor above 1 indicates growth, possibly exponential growth, of the number of infections as more people are infected than those who recover.

We need to strive for a growth factor of less than 1, heading towards zero.

Following a peak in infections the factor does drop, however an increasing growth factor could herald a new wave, and when it reaches 1 and continues increasing, we could be heading for something like that short 12 day doubling time again.

I have plotted the growth factor as a function of time for all 9 provinces using Department of Health data and the factor dropped below 1 about 2 months ago.

It continued dropping to an encouraging 0,4 but then increased again, going above 1 for the first time in nearly 2 months around September 24.

Closer to home, in KZN the factor dropped below 1 some 45 days ago.

It almost dropped as low as 0,2 about 3 weeks ago but then climbed again and is now hovering around 1.

This was at the time of writing on September 26.

So, if we are on the cusp of a second wave, let’s be responsible, think about our behaviour, and minimize the impact to the best of our ability.

Remember that none of us knows our status, except when we are tested, and then only at the time of the test.

In public, therefore, we need to see ourselves not only as vulnerable but also as possible carriers of the virus.

With this realization let us behave accordingly.

Letter shortened – Editor.