New Covid variant, cluster outbreaks likely to prompt an earlier peak for Gauteng

Gauteng was likely to experience the peak of another resurgence in new Covid-19 cases sooner than initially anticipated, residents were warned.

Last week the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) and Network for Genomic Surveillance South Africa confirmed that a new coronavirus variant called Omicron was detected in the country.

This new variant was said to be the driving force behind the increase in infections particularly in Tshwane and throughout the province.

NICD’s Professor Anne von Gottberg said during a media briefing last week that in 100 specimens sequenced and confirmed most of them were coming from areas in Tshwane and other parts of Gauteng.

Scientists were studying the variant and its effects, and most importantly, whether the Covid-19 vaccine can offer protection against death and sickness against Omicron.

In the week of November 18-25, the province recorded 12 948 infections. This is a jump compared to four weeks ago, when the province recorded an average of 1 000 cases weekly.

Following the discovery of the new variant the Gauteng command council went back to the drawing board to project how the variant would affect infections in the province over the coming weeks.

Council member Professor Bruce Mellado said although scientists would study data for projections, it was likely the province would experience a peak sooner than initially anticipated.

“The numbers are growing much faster than ever before in a short space of time. It is very likely that we are dealing with a highly contagious new strain given the fact that we have not seen this type of growth before,” he said.

In absence of a new variant, the modellers initially anticipated the peak of the fourth wave to hit the province between late December and early January.

Mellado said as infections continued to rise the fourth wave was imminent.

At the weekend the province recorded 7 110 infections.

“Given what we see right now, the likely scenario is that we will have a fast rise and peak sooner than in other occasions (previous peaks) because the numbers are rising fast,” he said.

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Mobility in the province has also increased, Mellado said. “People are moving the same way as before the outbreak.

“We see the fourth wave coming and now is not the time to ignore the numbers, as communities we need to get vaccinated and adhere to social distancing regulations and wearing of masks.”

Part of the team that discovered the Omicron variant, Professor Tulio de Oliviera said the variant had a very high number of mutations (change in structure of gene) which he said was a concern.

“The variant did surprise us, there were many more mutations than we expected and the mutations are of concern. We can see the variant potentially spreading very fast,” he said.

“The number of cases has been increasing and we expect some sort of pressure in hospitals over the next few weeks.”

The scientist warned the public against mass gatherings that could result in cluster outbreaks.

He said the infections which started in Tshwane was now spreading across the province.

Previously, coronavirus Beta variant was the driving force behind the second wave and the Delta variant saw an increase during the third wave.

Pretoria Life Healthcare chief medical officer Dr Louis Kathan said hospital admissions were very low across all hospitals, but started to see a slight increase in the past week.

“We do anticipate an increase in hospital admissions in the coming weeks, with the World Health Organisation (WHO) this week classifying the new Covid-19 Omicron variant.

“While data about the new variant is limited, our hospitals are prepared for a fourth wave over the holiday season, and have implemented all lessons and experience from previous waves as standard protocol and procedures.

“Frontline workers are obviously tired from the challenges of the pandemic but remain committed to provide quality care and clinical excellence to all patients,” he said.

As of December 1, Kathan said the hospital would conclude the implementation of a mandatory vaccination policy to ensure a safe working environment.

Netcare hospital managing director Jacques du Plessis said the hospital group had not seen a notable increase in admissions cases as at Friday, 26 November and only have 100 positive patients in its hospitals across South Africa

“Please remain vigilant to help protect your loved ones, yourself, and the healthcare system. It is critical for each individual to closely adhere to Covid-19 precautions.

“Netcare strongly supports the need for all South Africans to be vaccinated, as vaccines have been proven to be safe and highly effective in saving lives, globally.

“In fact, we have witnessed the positive effects of vaccination in our workforce during the third wave as there was a significant reduction in the number of staff infections, hospitalisation and deaths from Covid-19 compared to the previous two waves,” Du Plessis said.

President Cyril Ramaphosa in a televised national address on Sunday, announced the country would remain on coronavirus alert level 1 “for now”.

He said the government would monitor infection rates and hospital admissions over this week.

Following the detection of the Omicron variant, countries that have imposed travel restrictions on South Africa include the United Kingdom, United States, European Union members, Canada, Turkey, Sri Lanka, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Australia, Japan, Thailand, Seychelles, Brazil and Guatemala, among others.