POLOKWANE – The South African Weather Service (SAWS) is monitoring the development of a significant low-pressure system over southern Mozambique, which is expected to bring a period of sustained rainfall to the north-eastern parts of South Africa, including Limpopo.

SAWS confirmed that an intense low-pressure system will develop and move southwards, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms to the escarpment and lowveld areas of Limpopo from early morning on Saturday, January 10, potentially persisting until Thursday, January 15.

According to Vox Weather, key uncertainty remains where the core of the system will track. Some forecast models place it further east over Mozambique, which would result in lower rainfall totals for South Africa.

Other models, such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), project the system’s core further west, which could bring very high rainfall totals to parts of Limpopo and Mpumalanga.

SAWS has noted that all major global weather models agree on a multi-day, high-impact rainfall event for the region, but disagree on the precise location of the heaviest falls.

Localised forecasts for Polokwane indicate potential prolonged rainfall. Projections from AccuWeather show a significant escalation from Saturday through Wednesday.

Over the weekend, the city could see around 10.5mm of rain on Saturday, increasing to nearly 40mm on Sunday. Monday is forecast to bring the most intense downpours, with a potential total exceeding 80mm. This would result in an approximate three-day accumulation of 132mm for the area.

Residents are advised to monitor official SAWS updates closely for changes to the forecast and any further warnings.