POLOKWANE – Politics is an exceptionally complicated discourse of material probabilities and abstract unpredictability. But there are times when political probabilities outweigh abstract unpredictability.
The outcome of any electoral contestation is necessitated by varied internal and external socio-political variables.
In Limpopo, all municipalities are under the political tutelage of the ANC and that attests to the inelastic fibre of the province’s electoral politics.
In the upcoming municipal elections, I don’t expect any fierce contest between the ANC and opposition parties. There are empirical indicators to suggest that the ANC in Limpopo will usurp control of all municipalities.
The cognitive homogeneity of opposition parties makes the ANC stronger and more resilient. My analytical assessment is that opposition parties are only interested in reducing the electoral strength of the ruling party.
That limited mentality prevents opposition parties from maturing into an alternative government. A credible political party must not contest elections with the sole aim of reducing the strength of another party. Actually, a credible political party must contest elections with the sole aim of winning votes.
We must brace ourselves for a fascinating electoral contest between the EFF and the DA. The EFF is an inexperienced party that is growing at the expense of opposition parties. There are people who falsely assume the EFF is growing at the expense of the ANC’s electoral support. A precise analysis of the 2014 General Elections shows that the EFF benefitted electorally at the expense of smaller opposition parties. In 2014, the electoral support of the PAC, AZAPO, COPE, IFP and UDM declined significantly. And most tellingly, the EFF managed to accomplish 6,25 percent of the national vote in 2014.
In the upcoming municipal elections, it is highly probable that the EFF will perform much better than the DA.
Evidently, the PAC, COPE, UDM and AZAPO are technically paralysed. On average, independent candidates lack organisational machinery to emerge victorious in elections.
Given the political dynamics in Limpopo, I don’t expect any strong electoral contest between the ANC and opposition parties. The ANC is more likely to retain control of all municipalities in the province. And the EFF will most probably outclass and edge out the DA.
Elvis Masoga
Political analyst
