A formed El Niño is set to have a significant impact on the South African spring and 2027 as the South African Weather Service (Saws) predicts that we will have below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures.

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What is an El Niño?

An El Niño is a natural climate pattern that results in a shift in global atmospheric circulation. According to World Meteorological Organization (WMO), an El Niño is characterised by unusually warm ocean surface temperatures.

“In the Pacific Ocean, warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures usually mean El Niño conditions, which happen when easterly trade winds become weaker,” said the WMO.

What does this mean for South Africa?

Saws’ latest forecast for the remaining months of the year show that we can expect normal temperatures from 24°C to 34°C. Due to the devastating duo of El Niño and global warming, Saws also expect high frequency heatwaves to occur.

“As current forecasts indicate the potential for an exceptionally strong El Niño, uncertainty remains regarding its eventual strength and regional impacts. For this reason, the extent of expected heatwaves and water scarcity associated with the event will be closely monitored,” said Saws.

Global warming as El Niño’s cheerleader

The ruinous coupling of the two continues to grow as global warming becomes more visible with each passing day. According to the Climate Action Tracker (Cat),  an independent scientific project that tracks government climate action and measures it against the globally agreed Paris Agreement, South Africa is categorised as insufficient.

Also read: Surviving the heat: How to stay cool in hot weather

So what does this mean?

The Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate change, that was adopted by 195 parties at the UN Climate Change Conference in Paris in 2015. The main goal of the agreement is to hold “the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” and pursue efforts “to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels”.

While South Africa has since made several positive policy changes like the adoption of the Climate Change Act in 2024, accelerating renewable energy expansion and development of the Just Energy Transition Implementation Plan, according to Cat, South Africa is not meeting its fair share of contribution to climate change.

South Africans now sit with high temperatures due to global warming on an every day basis; now with the addition of El Niño it can be just as hotter.

How do we fix this?

South Africans can make small changes that all have a part in mitigating climate change:

• Buy energy efficient appliances
• Buy sustainably produced and organic foods where possible
• Change light bulbs to energy efficient ones
• Reduce, re-use and recycle
• Switch off non-essential lights
• Reduce water usage
• Reduce carbon emissions by walking or cycling to shops

As the temperatures rise, remember to make eco-friendly choices and stay cool.

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