High summer rainfall probability for KZN, says weather service

While drier than normal summer conditions await most of South Africa as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (Enso) takes effect ahead of the warmer months, above-average rainfall could be on the cards for the country’s north east.

This is according to the SA Weather Service (SAWS) whose meteorologists issued a long-range forecast on Monday.

Enso’s typical impact on the country is felt from October to March, but the weather service says current global forecasts indicate a great deal of uncertainty for the typically drier conditions experienced by South Africa during an El Nino.

“The multi-model rainfall forecast indicates above-normal rainfall for most of the country during Spring,” said SAWS.

“The early summer [November to January], however, indicates below-normal rainfall over the central parts of the country, and above-normal rainfall for the north east.

“Minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be mostly above-normal countrywide for the forecast period.”

SAWS weather prediction system

Owing to its local numerical modelling efforts, which involve coupling the atmosphere and ocean components to form a fully interactive coupled modelling system, SAWS is recognised by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) as a Global Producing Centre (GPC) for long-range forecasts.

The SAWS Coupled Model (SCM) is the first of its kind in South Africa and the southern Africa region.

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