Meat prices push up grocery bills in South Africa

Meat was the biggest driver of food inflation after surging to a 25-month high of 6.6% this year.

Senior Agricultural Economist at FNB Commercial, Paul Makube, says the increase is due to the countrywide foot and mouth (FMD) disease outbreak.

“The foot and-mouth disease outbreak created a short supply crunch due to the inability to slaughter livestock, mainly cattle, while the earlier ban on Brazilian chicken imports due to bird flu outbreak caused panic in the market as it is the major source of mechanically deboned meat used in manufacturing of products such as polony,” said Makube.

South Africa has since partially lifted the Brazilian chicken import ban, which should ease pressure on prices in the medium term.

“While the FMD situation remains sticky with new outbreaks reported in the Free State and persisting in KZN, recent developments are that slaughtering has resumed in major feedlots with producer prices already ‘off the boil’ early in July,” added Makube

South Africa’s food inflation edged higher to 3% in June 2025, relative to May’s 2.8% – underpinned by gains in the core food and non-alcoholic beverages (FNAB) – but still came below expectations of a 3.1% spike.

“Our analysis of the FNAB shows a 0.3 percentage point jump from the May level to 5.1% in June. The food sub-index rose by the same margin from the previous month to 4.7% driven by meat.

“However, monthly food inflation slowed from 1.2% in May to 0.7% in June 2025, led by the fruits and nuts subcategory, which declined for the fourth consecutive month to -2.4%.”

Makube notes that in terms of the food inflation outlook, downside risks include:

– A persistent rand exchange rate appreciation
– Weak international crude oil prices
– Bulging global grains stocks outlook
– The consequent downside pressure on prices

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