Should we move to Level 3 of the lockdown?
Level 4 of lockdown isn’t all that different from Level 5 - we can go for a run in the morning and get a takeaway delivered, but even then, we have curfews and strict travel movements in place.
When South Africa however moves to Level 3, the differences should be more tangible – but will some get there before others?
TheSouthAfricancom reported that there are a few provinces that are showing very low case numbers and infection rates, judging by the latest disease figures.
The Northern Cape leads by example, with just 26 reported cases so far. North West has just 35 patients, and Limpopo has only recorded 40 of them (with two deaths). Mpumalanga actually has more cases than Limpopo (57) but, like the former two provinces, there hasn’t been a fatality to report.
These four provinces would be the first to argue they could ease restrictions and move in Level 3. But this comes with its own challenges: People may not feel safe if their lockdown is advanced before anyone else’s. Plus, it would make matters very complicated for border towns and intra-provincial travel laws.
You’d also have strange scenarios where some pockets have very little cases, but they are inside a larger area that is experiencing high infection rates. The Karoo region itself is relatively untroubled by this global health crisis, but its location in the Western Cape (which has the highest number of cases in SA) may hold it back
This brings us to the inverse- provinces where the disease has spread quickly. Gauteng and KZN make up the top three, with more than 50 deaths and almost 3 000 registered cases between them. The Premier of KwaZulu-Natal previously mulled keeping eThekwini in Level 5 this week, before having a change of heart.
In times like these, it is often the biggest cities that harbour the most infections. Cape Town, Johannesburg and Pretoria have all been flagged as ‘hot-spots’ for the disease
The government may have gone a little quiet on their risk-adjusted strategy, but the possibility of provincial and local governments fast-tracking themselves into Level 3 of lockdown remains.
Ironically, it is the sparsely-populated areas of South Africa that find themselves in the driving seat to restart their economic activities before anyone else. However, the situation still remains uncertain and for the next few weeks at least, it seems as if everyone is happier to ‘stick rather than twist’.
