ICYMI: ‘It is too early to breathe a sigh of relief’

The Gauteng Provincial Command Council gave its weekly update on the Covid-19 pandemic on 30 July.

Professor Bruce Mellado, from Wits University’s iThemba Labs, who is also a member of the Gauteng Command Council, said that the modelling was working reasonably well and toward the end of May, hotspots started to emerge, which drove a surge in cases.

Toward the end of June, Mellado said that there was a clear increase in the number of cases. He said that toward the end of June, about two-thirds of positive cases were recorded in hotspot areas. “From a modelling standpoint and our ability to predict it, we have to add a new model on top to describe how hotspots have evolved and what they look like.”

He explained that there is a new phenomenon in the province where hotspots can be defined as small pandemics, where there is a high density of cases in a relatively small area.

Mellado said that there has been an ‘up and down’ of cases however this does not mean that Gauteng is passed its peak yet. “As a result of the surge, we now have transmission everywhere in the province, as a result of that, the pandemic is progressing toward a larger peak.”

Dr Mary Kawonga, a senior specialist in public health medicine, said that it is too early to breathe a sigh of relief as the province is still heading toward its peak. She said that there is still a very large part of the population that has not had the virus and are therefore susceptible.

She highlighted that social distancing and wearing masks are still key in ensuring that the virus is not transmitted. She said that the government has done what it can to isolate people who are infected however people who isolate at home need to ensure they do not have contact with those outside their home.

Gauteng Premier David Makhura said that hotspots are constantly changing.

He highlighted that he is still concerned about funerals and the number of people who attend a funeral. He added that there have also been a number of protests against gender-based violence are also a concern as there is a possibility the virus could be spread.

“We are always able to trace why there has been a spike. We can identify a specific event where there has been a spike, what we call a cluster infection. ”

He said that there are now 4oo ward-based response teams in Gauteng. These are health workers working in their communities to curb the rise of infections.

He said that in June, they were incredibly worried about Diepsloot as a hotspot however this has since improved thanks to a change in behaviour by residents.

Makhura said that the prohibition on the sale of alcohol has assisted hospitals. “We still have a high hospitalisation rate but we are coping. Coming in to August, we have additional beds coming in but the suspension on the sale of alcohol has assisted.”

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