Fuel price joy: Diesel could hit three-year low with expected dip in June

South African motorists and businesses may soon enjoy further relief at the pumps, with both petrol and diesel currently lined up for 2025’s fourth consecutive fuel price cut in June.

The biggest movement is in wholesale diesel prices, where a drop of up to 61c per litre is anticipated.

Both 0.05% (500ppm) and 0.005% (50ppm) sulphur diesel grades could decrease by 53c to 61c, which would bring inland prices to R18.37 and R18.41 respectively. Coastal prices may drop even lower, approaching R17.58 per litre.

June fuel price: Sizeable diesel cuts on the cards

If fuel price over-recoveries stay on track until the beginning of June, when the official fuel prices are announced by the Department of Mineral Resources and Petroleum, diesel prices could reach levels last seen back in February 2022.

These reductions could significantly benefit sectors heavily reliant on fuel, such as transport, logistics, and agriculture, where diesel is a major operational cost.

Expected price changes for petrol and illuminating paraffin

According to the latest data (19 May) from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), petrol prices are also expected to continue their downward trend if market conditions remain favourable.

In comparison to the decent decreases projected for wholesale diesel prices, 93 Unleaded and 95 Unleaded petrol are likely to only see a slim drop of between 25c and 30c per litre.

Illuminating paraffin, widely used for heating and cooking in lower-income households, is also forecast to decrease by 56 cents per litre.

Current cost at the pumps: Coastal and inland

South Africans currently pay R21.29 for a litre of 93 unleaded petrol (ULP) in Gauteng, with 95 ULP retailing at R21.40 inland and R20.60 at the coast.

This follows price cuts of 22 cents per litre for 95 ULP and 21 cents for 93 UPL at the beginning of May, while diesel decreased by between 41 cents (50ppm) and 42 cents (500ppm).

June fuel prices: Factors driving the drop

The expected price cuts can be attributed to a combination of:

• A relatively stable rand/dollar exchange rate
• Brent Crude Oil stabilising below $80 per barrel
• Increased oil supply from OPEC+ countries
• Signs of a possible United States-Iran nuclear agreement, which could see additional Iranian oil entering global markets.

Brent Crude Oil recently edged up to $66 a barrel due to easing tariff tensions between China and the US. Global oil prices, however, remain under pressure due to fears of oversupply and sluggish demand.

Caution amid global volatility

While the June fuel price forecast is promising, industry experts warned that geopolitical tensions and fluctuating global oil demand could still reverse these gains in the second half of the year.

Official fuel price: Who has the final say?

As always, the latest data update comes with the caveat that it is still early in the month, and market conditions can swing before the Department of Petroleum and Mineral Resources makes the final announcement at the end of this month.

According to the department, the unaudited CEF snapshots are not predictive and do not cover other potential changes, such as slate levy adjustments or retail margin changes, which could still have a bearing on the final fuel prices.

• The official fuel price adjustments will come into effect on Wednesday, 4 June.

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