The slight increase in coronavirus infections over the past week in Tshwane is not yet a sign of the start of a “fifth wave”, according to Professor Bruce Mellado.

He forms part of the Gauteng government Covid-19 Ministerial Advisory Committee.

Mellado and other academics and health specialists have over the past two years analysed and done predictions on the trend of Covid-19 infections in the province.

According to Gauteng health, there were 3 950 infections from March 31 to April 07. The week before that the province recorded 3 743 cases.

“Based on the rise we saw last week, in my opinion, I do not see the signs of a fifth wave just yet. To me, we are still in the aftermath of the fourth wave with relatively high community transmissions per week.

“Right now, I think it is too early to judge if the fifth wave is starting,” said Mellado on Tuesday.

Mellado said infections fluctuated and there needed to be more changes with many other factors to conclude that “the fifth wave is upon us”.

While the fifth wave was inevitable with current variants and rate of infections, Mellado said the council did not expect it to be as high as previous waves.

“We have developed early detection algorithms that allow us the use of artificial intelligence to establish the arrival of a fifth wave,” he said.

Mellado said the council could not predict when the fifth wave would hit; however, it was observed that the country’s peaks were about 25 weeks apart.

“That is why we believe that the next peak could hit around June or July. I don’t want to say it is a prediction, but conjecture because of past history,” he said.

The fourth wave peaked on December 9, 2021.

Mellado said unlike the first wave which following its peak recorded low infections, in post-fourth wave this was not the case.

“Post-fourth wave the province still recorded thousands of infections weekly.”

He said the rise in infections could be attributed to the change in the development of the virus.

“About two months ago, we reached about 6 000 cases weekly and then we dropped to a new level of about 3 000. This was due to the virus changing and developing into a new sub-variant which became dominant.

“We have an active community transmission but because it is re-infections, we don’t expect severe diseases compared to the previous waves.”

According to the Network for Genomic Surveillance in South Africa (NGS-SA), the Omicron variant has been dominant since November 2021 and its subvariant called BA.2 accounted for 94% cases in March.

Following the slight increase in Tshwane, metro spokesperson Selby Bokaba said the municipality embarked on a vaccination drive in the north of Pretoria.

“As of April 2, region 1 had a 15% week-on-week increase of active cases which had moved from 196 to 225. The metro is once more urging all eligible persons living in the vicinity of the Wonderpark shopping centre to visit the site for vaccination,” he said.

This was not the first time Gauteng experienced an increase in infections post-fourth wave.

In February, when Gauteng and other provinces experienced an infection increase, health minister Joe Phaahla said the department expected the fifth wave to hit closer to winter.

The Free State had a 20% increase followed by Gauteng at 17% and Mpumalanga 12%.

Tshwane breakdown of infections from 31 March – 7 April:

– Ga-Rankuwa, Mabopane, Winterveldt, Soshanguve, Rosslyn, Karen Park, Wonderboom, Akasia, Nina Park, The Orchards, Amandasig, Theresa Park, Pretoria North (185);

– Hammanskraal, Temba, Suurman, Dilopye, Stinkwater, Ramotse, New Eersterust, Kameeldrift, Pyramid/Rooiwal, Doornpoort, Kekana Gardens, Marokolong, Randstown, Kanana (100)

– Atteridgeville, Laudium, Pretoria CBD, Hercules, Danville, Saulsville, Lotus Gardens, Pretoria West (356);

– Lyttelton, Eldoraigne, Waterkloof, Olievenhoutbosch, Rooihuiskraal, Centurion, Brooklyn, Hatfield (267);

– East Lynne, Rayton, Cullinan, De Wagensdrift, Refilwe, Silverton, Onverwacht (13);

– Eersterust, Lethabong, Mamelodi, Silver Lakes, Garsfontein, Lynnwood, Queenswood, Wilgers, Waltloo, Equestria, Mooikloof, Brummeria (256); and

– Ekangala, Sokhulumi, Dark City, Zithobeni, Bronkhorstspruit, Kanana, Rethabiseng (11).