Tropical Cyclone Freddy is expected to pass relatively close to the islands of Mauritius and La Reunion as it continues to drift westwards. The South African Weather Services (SAWS) said in a statement yesterday that there is a very small possibility that the cyclone could affect eastern Zimbabwe and the north-eastern sector of Limpopo later this week.

The weather office says the cyclone currently lies about 400km to the north-east of Mauritius and is expected to continue along a predominantly west south-westward track in the coming days, with a projected landfall along the east coast of Madagascar tonight.

“While there is some degree of uncertainty regarding the exact location of Madagascan landfall, according to the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) La Reunion, it will probably be between the coastal towns of Mahonoro and Mananjary,” says the weather service.

SAWS warned that tropical cyclone are still very unpredictable despite significant recent advancement in numeric weather prediction (NWP) models.

Very small chances of cyclone Freddy moving inland

At this stage it is predicted that cyclone Freddy will make landfall in central Mozambique near Beira on Friday afternoon.

SAWS adds in the slight chance that the cyclone moves further inland to eastern Zimbabwe and perhaps the north-eastern sector of Limpopo province, it would have significantly weakened. It could, however, even in its weakened state have the capacity to deliver heavy rainfall and possible flooding.

“In light of the recent (unrelated) flooding event which affected Limpopo and Mpumalanga last week, any renewed flooding over the last-mentioned regions could potentially be catastrophic,” warns the SAWS.

The weather service assured the public that they are in consultation with national and provincial disaster management structures and will continue to monitor developments and issue regular updates.