A statement issued by the United States Embassy that warns of a possible terror attack in Sandton on Saturday, has caused widespread panic. Caxton Local Media spoke to an expert on terrorism about the how big she perceives the threat to be.

The warning, issued this afternoon and published on the U.S. Embassy & Consulates in South Africa’s website, states that ‘terrorists may be planning to conduct an attack targeting large gatherings of people at an unspecified location in the greater Sandton area’.

Sandton, the economic hub of South Africa, is known to be busy with several large gatherings of people at any given time. This weekend, the city will play host to Johannesburg Pride, a march to celebrate the LGBTIQA+ community.

pic.twitter.com/7s80JnTFTs

— Johannesburg Pride (@JhbPride) October 26, 2022

The U.S. Embassy has advised staff to avoid large gatherings and crowds in the greater Sandton area over the weekend.

Jasmine Opperman, a security consultant that specialises in extremism and political violence in southern Africa, says the embassy’s warning reminds of a similar alert issued in 2016, which warned about possible terror attacks in Johannesburg and Cape Town malls. The alert sparked similar warnings by the British and Australian governments, leaving South Africa to put out flames to assure tourists of their safety.

Judging the information at hand, Opperman says the possibility of a terror attack in Sandton on Saturday, is ‘highly unlikely’.

“From what I have seen, the information in the warning is just too vague and generalised for me to be convinced it holds any real threat.”

However, Opperman says such an alert cannot be ignored, especially if the South African intelligence service cannot refute the threat.

In security alert issued on October 26, the U.S. embassy said that the potential terror attack may be targeting a large gathering of people in Sandton on October 29.https://t.co/8ow1ZFlfT3

— Sandton Chronicle (@Sandton_News) October 26, 2022

“Although I think the possibility of an attack is highly unlikely, terror groups are known for being unpredictable. Our government will have to act in some or other way.”

She says the US embassy has a mandate to warn its citizens in South Africa if they receive information of a possible threat. The mandate was put in place after the 9/11 attacks in 2001.

“The embassy is under no obligation to share information about a perceived threat with the South African government before they issue a warning. Their mandate is to protect US citizens. For them, safety is more important than waiting to confirm the accuracy of the theat.”

According to Opperman, the minister of state security has denied receiving a report about the possible threat. State Security Agency spokesperson Mava Scott told Netwerk 24 they were communicating with the US embassy to establish what the situation is amid widespread panic.

Opperman says what she finds concerning is that it seems like there is a serious lack of effective intelligence communication channels between the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) of the US and their South African counterparts.

“Somewhere, someone should have received a report, probably from the CIA, but according to our minister, there was none.”

She says it is an undeniable fact that organised crime, the financing of terrorism and terror groups are present in South Africa.

“To fight terrorism, there must be co-operation between different intelligence agencies from different countries with effective communication channels.”

Opperman says that if she was at the helm of safety and security in South Africa, she would immediately establish a provincial task team involving role-players such as the intelligence agency, SAPS and defence force to verify if any similar information has been received.

“If no such local intelligence exists, I would launch an investigation to establish the validity of the information at our disposal to be in a better position to decide how to act.

“At the very least should there be heightened police presence and medical personnel in Sandton over the weekend.”

She says that although the threat should not be taken lightly, she would advise the public to go about their daily business.

“Apply your mind, be on the lookout for threats, but continue with your daily routine.”

In response to the numerous inquiries the U.S. Mission to South Africa has received, kindly note the safety alert issued earlier today.https://t.co/IiMEIMdM6a

— US Embassy SA (@USEmbassySA) October 26, 2022