Vice-admiral may be sacrificed over sanctioned Islamic Guard vessel – experts.
Is the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) top brass being made scapegoats in a long-standing political mistake by the government over its relationship with Iran?
That’s the question that experts are grappling with as they analyse the controversy over the Iranian Navy’s participation in the recent Will for Peace 2026 naval drills off the Cape Town coast that threatens to pit South Africa against the US, an opponent of Tehran.
SA Navy chief Vice-Admiral Monde Lobese reportedly disregarded President Cyril Ramaphosa’s instruction to ensure the Iranian Navy did not participate in the drills. The instruction was conveyed to the relevant parties by Defence and Military Veterans minister Angie Motshekga.
Lobese allegedly hailed Iran’s participation in the Brics Plus drills. On the last day of the exercise on Friday, Iranian navy chief Nejad Moridi reportedly also confirmed Iran’s Shahid Naqdi destroyer, the Makran helicopter carrier and the Shahid Mahdavi frigate took part in the parade.
He reportedly added Iranian naval forces also met with other participating delegations.
But an analyst doubted if the SANDF would just defy Ramaphosa, rather pointing finger at the government.
Defence expert Helmoed-Römer Heitman said the SANDF top brass are the “fall guys” in the process because South Africa routinely supported Iran, only to realise their mistake and pretend they did not know.
“Given that the government has backed Iran and its clients such as Hamas, I suspect the problem was bumbling ineptitude in government and then panic when they realised how bad the timing was, followed by more ineptitude in trying to make it look less bad,” Heitman said.
“Now, they will look for a scapegoat. I really do not see the defence force wilfully disobeying an order from the president. They are just the fall guy.”
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Political fallout and inquiry
However, he stressed that whatever instruction Ramaphosa gave was too late, as the damage was done, and he expressed doubt that a presidential instruction had been issued at all.
“I do not know if any instruction [by] the president was actually issued. [If it was issued], was it for the Iranians to leave, or for them to just observe? Or was it to find a way to go ahead but try to reduce the profile,” Heitman said.
“Then it is possible that the Iranians or the Chinese simply ignored us, putting us in our place in their scheme of things.
“But any instruction was far too late, the damage was done when the exercise was announced and worsened when the ships arrived [particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard one].”
He said South Africa had already presented itself as a friend or even ally of Iran and that was noted in the US, but also in Europe and the gulf region, “where Iran is regarded as a bully and has almost no friends”.
Heitman said Iran is strategically and economically irrelevant to South Africa while the US, Europe and the countries of the gulf that detest Iran are economically important, or even vital to the country.
Motshekga promised to appoint a board of inquiry to probe whether Ramaphosa’s instruction was misrepresented or intentionally ignored.
The board, mandated to complete its investigation within seven days, is expected to submit a report to the minister within the time frame.
Motshekga’s investigation is believed to be focusing on Lobese’s role in allegedly authorising Iran’s participation.
Last year, Lobese accused the National Treasury of “sabotaging” the SANDF by not funding the navy sufficiently, leaving it under-resourced.
He asked for parliament to intervene to hold the government accountable.
Independent political analyst Goodenough Mashego said Lobese could be sacrificed for embarrassing South Africa.
He could face dismissal as he fell into a trap by Iran which brought the Islamic Guard ship that was sanctioned by the US and the European Union.
He said the government could find an excuse to get rid of Lobese, who escaped dismissal for insubordination when he criticised the government last year over failing to fund the navy.
“Lobese is going to be a fall guy and that will appease those who felt South Africa shouldn’t be invited to participate. Iran got South Africa into a fight that was not its fight,” Mashego said.
SA authorities are in crisis mode after the US expressed concern about Iran’s participation and threatened take action.
Some feared that the timing was bad, as the US was expected to include South Africa in the renewed Agoa, an Act that provides sub-Saharan Africa with tariff-free access to lucrative US markets.
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