Nuclear power returns to South Africa’s energy debate, with new plan prioritising renewables, gas, and modernisation to end blackouts.
The new energy blueprint announced by Minister of Electricity and Energy Kgosientsho Ramokgopa has been hailed as “bold” and “progressive” by nuclear energy expert Bismark Tyobeka.
Tyobeka, vice-chancellor and principal of North-West University and chair of the ministerial expert panel on nuclear, was excited by the plan’s reintroduction of nuclear energy into the national debate after years of the issue remaining dormant.
South Africa currently relies heavily on fossil fuels for its energy needs – a path most countries are trying to avoid.
SA’s energy blueprint shifts focus to nuclear, renewables and gas
The new strategy envisaged South Africa would generate more electricity from non-fossil fuel sources than fossil fuels.
The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) sets the country on a 15- year path to diversify the national energy mix, modernise ageing infrastructure and restore faith in an economy long constrained by blackouts, Tyobeka said.
The plan “emphatically shifts the country’s energy reliance from fossil fuels to renewables, gas and nuclear”.
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At the heart of it lies a familiar dilemma: how to keep the lights on without worsening the climate crisis.
Coal, which still provides 58% of SA’s electricity, will gradually yield to renewables and, together with distributed generation, this mix will make up over half of new installed capacity by 2035.
The government expects more than 105 000MW of new generation capacity by 2039, with 34 000MW from wind and 25 000MW from solar.
Aiming for 105,000MW new capacity by 2039
It is hoped gas-to-power with 6 000MW by 2030 will act as a stabiliser, while a “clean coal” demonstration plant remains on the cards.
Tyobeka said he is reassured that the IRP calls for 5 200MW of new nuclear generation by 2039, with potential expansion to 10 000MW if a forthcoming Nuclear Industrialisation Plan proves viable.
The plan “acknowledges the crucial role that nuclear power has played in South Africa’s energy history”, Tyobeka said.
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“For more than 40 years, the country has benefited from clean, safe and secure electricity generated at the Koeberg nuclear plant in the Western Cape.”
According to the IRP, the first 1 200MW should come online by 2036, with the remaining units added progressively until the full 5 200MW are realised by 2039 in the first phase.
The International Atomic Energy Agency milestones framework typically anticipated a 12- to 15-year process from planning to first electricity generation, including at least seven years of construction, Tyobeka said.
Timeline achievable
The timeline is achievable.
“The time is right and the key players are ready,” said Tyobeka.
“The advisory panel must ensure that implementation happens swiftly. Our advice on the IRP should focus on achieving the shortest feasible delivery timelines.”
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