ANC divisions exposed by poor local election results – will the GNU survive?

The drop in support for the ANC in the recent local government elections is being used by a faction in the ANC to undermine the government of national unity (GNU).

This is the view of political analyst Professor Andre Duvenhage, who said the outcome of the local government elections will have an impact on other levels of government as well.

GNU questioned by ANC members

It comes after reports that some within the ANC’s national executive committee (NEC) have called for the GNU to be reconfigured. They are also blaming the partnership with the DA for the poor local election results.

“I believe that there is a strong grouping within the national executive council of the ANC that is against working with the DA and the Freedom Front Plus, and rather they would go for the narrative I refer to as centre-left,” said Duvenhage.

The Sunday Times reported that the ANC’s top seven officials were accused at this week’s NEC meeting of sidelining party members when making important decisions.

Duvenhage said the “huge” divisions within the ANC are clear. The decisions made by the party on local government coalitions will also play a role in who is elected as the ANC’s leaders next year.

“It doesn’t come as a surprise that the NEC of the ANC is pushing back against the top seven and they would like to be involved in all agreements. I think we can see this as an attempt – a bit of a palace revolution – to get a say in how coalitions were formalised ahead of the ANC national conference heading for the end of next year,” he said.

‘Pushback’ against DA

The ANC NEC decided this week that it would only form a coalition with the DA as a “last resort”. This was reportedly supported by President Cyril Ramaphosa, who said he was tired of the DA pushing against ANC policies.

The ANC also said on Friday that the high number of hung municipalities requires parties to “reflect and determine the best and most stable coalitions to serve the people of South Africa”.

“The development of our country depends largely on the effectiveness of our councils, and the ANC remains committed to establishing stable and working local government,” said ANC spokesperson Mahlengi Bhengu.

Duvenhage said there is currently a “huge pushback” against the DA, especially against Helen Zille and Cilliers Brink in Johannesburg and Tshwane.

“I think it has to do with control over resources,” he said.

The political analyst added that ActionSA leader Herman Mashaba has made it clear that he wants his party to hold mayoral positions in both Tshwane and Joburg.

“So, there is serious horse-trading going on at the moment – and it is clear the ANC is divided.”

Three coalition scenarios

Duvenhage said there are three main scenarios that could come out of the current coalition negotiations.

The first is what he calls a centre-left coalition, where the ANC joins forces with ActionSA and the EFF or the MK party.

The second is a strategic agreement. He said this would not be a coalition, but rather an agreement between the ANC and the DA to govern separately but support each other in different identified municipalities.

The third option is the DA forming coalitions without the ANC. “This is more or less what is currently happening in Nelson Mandela Bay, with ActionSA, the DA, the UDM and one or two others,” he said.

Implications of reconfiguring GNU

Duvenhage said if the ANC chooses to reconfigure the GNU, South Africa’s economy will suffer.

“A centre-left coalition will come with major implications for the economy of the country and for investor confidence.”

He also warned that coalitions with the EFF, MK party and ActionSA could see the ANC lose further support.

“My take on the ANC is that they are not going to restore their position; they are going to position far-left wing groupings like the EFF, maybe even the MK party, and ActionSA, which is not supposed to be left but is positioning itself to the left at the moment.

“And with these actors, they are in some ways mining on the support base of the ANC and in this way undermining the ANC.”