Elections 2021: Some existing political parties will be in the firing line

Today’s election is not only the most talked about or the most intensely contested in the history of South Africa’s democracy, it will be weaponised to punish mediocrity and win the best for the future.

Political experts believe most of the existing political parties will be in the firing line, as the electorate look for new political homes in the emerging parties and independent candidates.

Similarly, the polls can determine the future of the country’s electoral-political set-up, where coalitions are the norm, instead of an exception.

Presently, coalitions are accidental, a hit-and-run situation, hence they tend to be an on-off arrangement.

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The process could also set the tone for people-driven governance, as shown by the ANC being forced to include community members in its selection of candidates, instead of just party members.

In future, when the people say jump, no party will ask “why” – instead, “how high”. The voter will be the real master who wields influence, experts say.

Political analyst Professor Mcebisi Ndletyana from the University of Johannesburg says today’s polls are crucial, as they will show an inclination by the citizens to take their future into their own hands.

“It’s an opportunity for voters to do something to improve their lives or remain in the status quo.

“There is an inclination to do something, as manifested by the growth of new parties and independent candidates,” Ndletyana says.

What is left now to complete this response, he says, is the actual voting that would indicate the new attitudes.

“People want to explore different remedies, as shown in 2016, when they decided not to remain with the same party – which resulted in the loss of crucial metros by the ANC.

“My sense is that these elections will benefit the smaller parties and new entrants.

“You won’t see growth of the existing parties because they are to blame for the current mess in the country,” Ndletyana says.

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Political analyst Sanusha Naidu believes the ANC is being held hostage to its own promises and to public expectations around democratic outcomes it negotiated at the Convention for a Democratic SA talks in the early ’90s.

The ANC has mistakenly assumed people would continue to vote for it, irrespective of it being the worst-governed party with most of its municipalities in chaos and the party itself operating at “mafioso” level.

She foresees an increase in spoilt ballots as a new phenomenon at the polls because that “would be an indication of a protest vote … that ‘nobody is worth the value of getting my vote’.”

– ericn@citizen.co.za